#11BYU Cougars

10–1 · 7–1 BIG 12

In the books

WEEK 14 · 2025

The Week 14 recap

BYU beat UCF. Playoff odds moved from 34% to 47%.

…

…

ESPN2

Final

UCF

Final · UCF 21–41 BYUWish granted ✓

BYU

…

…

FOX

Impact 1

Rooted for

Arizona

at

Arizona State

Final · Arizona 23–7 Arizona StateWish granted ✓

Projected 9.2-point title-game boost

Arizona State lost, improving BYU's place in the Big 12 standings.

Entering-week projection100% if Arizona won91% with the other result9.2-point differenceBYU Big 12 title-game chance

…

…

ESPN

Impact 2

Texas Tech

at

Rooted for

West Virginia

Final · Texas Tech 49–0 West VirginiaWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.9-point title-game boost

Texas Tech won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection100% if West Virginia won94% with the other result5.9-point differenceBYU Big 12 title-game chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 3

Rooted for

LSU

at

Oklahoma

Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.8-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection37% if LSU won33% with the other result3.8-point differenceBYU playoff chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 4

Alabama

at

Rooted for

Auburn

Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.7-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection37% if Auburn won33% with the other result3.7-point differenceBYU playoff chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 5

Ole Miss

at

Rooted for

Mississippi State

Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.6-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection37% if Mississippi State won34% with the other result3.6-point differenceBYU playoff chance

…

…

ESPN

Impact 6

Utah

at

Rooted for

Kansas

Final · Utah 31–21 KansasWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Kansas won34% with the other result2.8-point differenceBYU playoff chance

…

…

ESPN

Impact 7

Vanderbilt

at

Rooted for

Tennessee

Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.7-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection35% if Tennessee won32% with the other result2.7-point differenceBYU playoff chance

…

…

FOX

Impact 8

Rooted for

Ohio State

at

Michigan

Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWish granted ✓

Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Ohio State won, thinning out the at-large competition for BYU's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection34% if Ohio State won32% with the other result2.5-point differenceBYU playoff chance

…

…

CBS

Impact 9

Oregon

at

Rooted for

Washington

Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Washington won33% with the other result2.4-point differenceBYU playoff chance

57 other games had little impact

UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+

Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2

Navy at Memphis · ESPN

Iowa at Nebraska · CBS

Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU

Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN

Air Force at Colorado State · FS1

Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC

San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN

Temple at North Texas · ESPN

Boise State at Utah State · CBS

Texas A&M at Texas · ABC

Indiana at Purdue · NBC

Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network

Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network

Miami at Pittsburgh · ABC

Houston at Baylor · TNT

Colorado at Kansas State · FS1

Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+

Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN

UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+

Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+

Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+

Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+

Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+

Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network

Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+

UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+

South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+

Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network

Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1

Penn State at Rutgers · BTN

Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network

Cincinnati at TCU · FOX

Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN

Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Army at UTSA · ESPN+

James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU

Florida State at Florida · ESPN2

Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network

Maryland at Michigan State · FS1

Virginia Tech at Virginia · ESPN

Rice at South Florida · ESPN+

UCLA at USC · NBC

Northwestern at Illinois · FOX

North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network

Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU

SMU at California · ESPN2

UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN

Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN

Fresno State at San José State · FS1

Wyoming at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.