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#12BYU Cougars

8–1 · 5–1 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
47%
Big 12 title game
11%
Win the Big 12
30%
Make the playoff
5%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.3
How the week went: playoff odds 30% → 36% · title-game odds 47% → 75%.
Playoff odds by week
123456789101112

If BYU wins out: 23% to win the Big 12, 67% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves BYU's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN
TCU at #12 BYU

Your game. Beat TCU and your playoff odds are 41%; lose and they drop to 13%.

Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · FOX
UCF at #6 Texas Tech

Big 12 race: Texas Tech losing helps your spot in the standings; Texas Tech losing softens the sting of your loss to them; UCF visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · UCF 9–48 Texas TechWent the other way ✗
Root for UCF+11.7 pp title-game odds
…
… · truTV
West Virginia at Arizona State

Big 12 race: Arizona State losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat West Virginia — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · West Virginia 23–25 Arizona StateWent the other way ✗
Root for West Virginia+11.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · FS1
Arizona at #25 Cincinnati

Big 12 race: Cincinnati losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Arizona — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Cincinnati in week 13.

Final · Arizona 30–24 CincinnatiWish granted ✓
Root for Arizona+9.8 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · FOX
Minnesota at #8 Oregon

Minnesota winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Minnesota 13–42 OregonWent the other way ✗
Root for Minnesota+3.2 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
Florida at #7 Ole Miss

Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida+3.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
#13 Utah at Baylor

You already beat Utah; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗
Root for Baylor+3.0 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#9 Notre Dame at #22 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Root for Pittsburgh+2.1 pp playoff odds
50 more games that don't move your needle
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
NC State at Miami · ESPN
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.