The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TCU | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.9–3.1 | 32% | 19% | 19% |
 #11Arizona State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.0–3.0 | 32% | 18% | 24% |
 #17Kansas State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.4–3.6 | 24% | 12% | 15% |
 Kansas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 21% | 10% | 9% |
 BYU | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.3–3.7 | 18% | 9% | 10% |
 Utah | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.0–4.0 | 17% | 8% | 8% |
 #22Iowa State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.9–4.1 | 14% | 7% | 8% |
 Colorado | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.7–4.3 | 11% | 5% | 5% |
 Baylor | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.9–4.1 | 11% | 5% | 3% |
 #23Texas Tech | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.5–4.5 | 7% | 3% | 4% |
 UCF | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.6–4.4 | 7% | 3% | 2% |
 Cincinnati | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.6–5.4 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 West Virginia | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.9–6.1 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.3–5.7 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Houston | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.4–6.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.