The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.8–2.2 | 47% | 27% | 13% |
 Texas State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.8–2.2 | 44% | 26% | 12% |
 South Alabama | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.7–2.3 | 30% | 15% | 4% |
 Marshall | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.8–3.2 | 20% | 9% | 2% |
 Troy | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.9–3.1 | 15% | 6% | <1% |
 App State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.9–3.1 | 15% | 5% | <1% |
 Old Dominion | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.7–3.3 | 13% | 5% | <1% |
 Louisiana | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.1–3.9 | 8% | 3% | <1% |
 Georgia Southern | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.0–4.0 | 5% | 1% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.2–4.8 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 UL Monroe | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.8–5.2 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Coastal Carolina | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Georgia State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.8–6.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Southern Miss | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.2–6.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.