The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
James Madison has clinched a spot in the title game; 3 teams are alive for the other.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 13; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James MadisonClinched | 7–0 | 9–1 | 7.9–0.1 | 100% | 95% | 39% |
 Southern Miss | 5–1 | 7–3 | 5.8–2.2 | 56% | 2% | 0% |
 Coastal Carolina | 5–2 | 6–4 | 5.1–2.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Troy | 4–2 | 6–4 | 5.3–2.7 | 36% | 2% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 4–2 | 5–5 | 5.0–3.0 | 9% | <1% | 0% |
 Old Dominion | 4–2 | 7–3 | 5.7–2.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia Southern | 3–3 | 5–5 | 3.5–4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Louisiana | 3–3 | 4–6 | 4.4–3.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Marshall | 3–3 | 5–5 | 4.5–3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 South Alabama | 2–4 | 3–7 | 2.9–5.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 App State | 1–5 | 4–6 | 1.8–6.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Texas State | 1–5 | 4–6 | 2.8–5.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 1–5 | 3–7 | 1.1–6.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–6 | 1–9 | 0.2–7.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.