The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 1–0 | 3–1 | 6.4–1.6 | 62% | 43% | 19% |
 Louisiana | 1–0 | 2–3 | 4.2–3.8 | 9% | 2% | <1% |
 Southern Miss | 1–0 | 3–2 | 3.6–4.4 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 Coastal Carolina | 1–0 | 2–2 | 3.7–4.3 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 UL Monroe | 1–0 | 3–1 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Marshall | 0–1 | 2–3 | 4.4–3.6 | 12% | 6% | 1% |
 South Alabama | 0–1 | 1–4 | 4.4–3.6 | 11% | 3% | <1% |
 App State | 0–1 | 2–2 | 3.3–4.7 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Georgia Southern | 0–1 | 2–3 | 3.6–4.4 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 0–1 | 1–4 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Texas State | 0–0 | 3–1 | 5.8–2.2 | 56% | 26% | 7% |
 Old Dominion | 0–0 | 3–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 23% | 13% | 3% |
 Troy | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.9–3.1 | 19% | 6% | <1% |
 Georgia State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 1.4–6.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.