The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #2Oregon | 2–0 | 5–0 | 7.8–1.2 | 65% | 34% | 91% |
 #1Ohio State | 1–0 | 4–0 | 7.8–1.2 | 51% | 27% | 98% |
 #8Indiana | 2–0 | 5–0 | 7.4–1.6 | 33% | 17% | 75% |
 #20Michigan | 1–0 | 3–1 | 7.0–2.0 | 21% | 6% | 15% |
 Maryland | 1–0 | 4–0 | 4.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Minnesota | 1–0 | 3–1 | 4.9–4.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 USC | 2–1 | 4–1 | 6.1–2.9 | 4% | 1% | 7% |
 Iowa | 1–1 | 3–2 | 4.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | 3% |
 #22Illinois | 1–1 | 4–1 | 4.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Northwestern | 1–1 | 2–2 | 2.5–6.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 #7Penn State | 0–1 | 3–1 | 6.7–2.3 | 22% | 14% | 86% |
 Nebraska | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.7–4.3 | <1% | <1% | 3% |
 Washington | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.6–4.4 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Wisconsin | 0–1 | 2–2 | 2.0–7.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Michigan State | 0–1 | 3–1 | 1.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Purdue | 0–1 | 2–2 | 1.2–7.8 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Rutgers | 0–2 | 3–2 | 2.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 UCLA | 0–1 | 0–4 | 1.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.