The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2025
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #2Penn State | 0–0 | 2–0 | 7.7–1.3 | 64% | 43% | 98% |
 #1Ohio State | 0–0 | 2–0 | 7.4–1.6 | 44% | 21% | 97% |
 #4Oregon | 0–0 | 2–0 | 7.0–2.0 | 43% | 21% | 89% |
 USC | 0–0 | 2–0 | 7.1–1.9 | 24% | 8% | 24% |
 #22Indiana | 0–0 | 2–0 | 6.4–2.6 | 11% | 4% | 21% |
 #23Michigan | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.8–3.2 | 6% | 1% | 9% |
 Nebraska | 0–0 | 2–0 | 5.2–3.8 | 4% | <1% | 6% |
 Iowa | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.8–5.2 | 1% | <1% | 4% |
 #9Illinois | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.6–4.4 | 1% | <1% | 17% |
 Washington | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Minnesota | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.8–4.2 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Wisconsin | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Rutgers | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Maryland | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Michigan State | 0–0 | 2–0 | 1.7–7.3 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Purdue | 0–0 | 2–0 | 1.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UCLA | 0–0 | 0–2 | 2.0–7.0 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.