The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 8 · 2025
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 8; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #1Ohio State | 3–0 | 6–0 | 8.3–0.7 | 78% | 46% | >99% |
 #3Indiana | 3–0 | 6–0 | 8.2–0.8 | 80% | 37% | 88% |
 #20USC | 3–1 | 5–1 | 6.5–2.5 | 6% | 2% | 13% |
 #8Oregon | 2–1 | 5–1 | 6.9–2.1 | 23% | 11% | 78% |
 Michigan | 2–1 | 4–2 | 6.4–2.6 | 9% | 2% | 6% |
 Iowa | 2–1 | 4–2 | 5.5–3.5 | 2% | <1% | 6% |
 Washington | 2–1 | 5–1 | 5.6–3.4 | 2% | <1% | 3% |
 #25Nebraska | 2–1 | 5–1 | 5.0–4.0 | <1% | <1% | 3% |
 Minnesota | 2–1 | 4–2 | 4.6–4.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 2–1 | 4–2 | 4.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 UCLA | 2–1 | 2–4 | 3.1–5.9 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Illinois | 2–2 | 5–2 | 4.8–4.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Maryland | 1–2 | 4–2 | 3.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Penn State | 0–3 | 3–3 | 4.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | 15% |
 Michigan State | 0–3 | 3–3 | 0.6–8.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Purdue | 0–3 | 2–4 | 0.6–8.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Rutgers | 0–3 | 3–3 | 1.9–7.1 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Wisconsin | 0–3 | 2–4 | 1.1–7.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.