The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #6Oregon | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.9–2.1 | 33% | 14% | 84% |
 #11Indiana | 1–0 | 4–0 | 7.1–1.9 | 22% | 10% | 55% |
 #19Michigan | 1–0 | 3–1 | 6.9–2.1 | 20% | 5% | 17% |
 #21USC | 2–0 | 4–0 | 6.9–2.1 | 16% | 4% | 16% |
 Iowa | 1–0 | 3–1 | 4.6–4.4 | 2% | <1% | 4% |
 Maryland | 1–0 | 4–0 | 4.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Nebraska | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.7–4.3 | <1% | <1% | 3% |
 #23Illinois | 0–1 | 3–1 | 3.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Rutgers | 0–1 | 3–1 | 2.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Wisconsin | 0–1 | 2–2 | 2.0–7.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Michigan State | 0–1 | 3–1 | 1.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 0–1 | 1–2 | 2.2–6.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Purdue | 0–1 | 2–2 | 1.2–7.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 #3Penn State | 0–0 | 3–0 | 7.8–1.2 | 66% | 48% | 96% |
 #1Ohio State | 0–0 | 3–0 | 7.4–1.6 | 39% | 17% | 96% |
 Washington | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.9–4.1 | 2% | <1% | 3% |
 Minnesota | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 UCLA | 0–0 | 0–3 | 1.3–7.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.