#6Oregon Ducks
4–0 · 1–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
33%
Big Ten title game
14%
Win the Big Ten
84%
Make the playoff
40%
First-round bye
avg seed 4.9
How the week went: playoff odds 84% → 91% · title-game odds 33% → 65%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Oregon's pathYour game
…
… · NBC
#6 Oregon at #3 Penn State
Your game. Beat Penn State and your playoff odds are 92%; lose and they drop to 81%.
Final · Oregon 30–24 Penn StateWish granted ✓
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · CBS
#1 Ohio State at Washington
Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings; Washington visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.
Final · Ohio State 24–6 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Root for Washington+5.8 pp title-game odds
…
… · Peacock
#11 Indiana at Iowa
Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Iowa visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.
Final · Indiana 20–15 IowaWent the other way ✗
Root for Iowa+2.5 pp title-game odds
…
… · FOX
#21 USC at #23 Illinois
Big Ten race: USC losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play USC in week 13.
Final · USC 32–34 IllinoisWish granted ✓
Root for Illinois+2.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · TNT
Cincinnati at Kansas
Cincinnati winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Cincinnati 37–34 KansasWish granted ✓
Root for Cincinnati+1.4 pp playoff odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
Alabama at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Northwestern · BTN
Army at East Carolina · ESPN
Florida State at Virginia · ESPN
TCU at Arizona State · FOX
Houston at Oregon State · ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas · ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota · BTN
Duke at Syracuse · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest · ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh · ESPN2
UCF at Kansas State · FS1
South Alabama at North Texas · ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio · CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison · ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe · ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss · ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M · ESPN
California at Boston College · ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia · FOX
UConn at Buffalo · ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Rice at Navy · CBSSN
Akron at Toledo · ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force · FS1
Tulane at Tulsa · ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State · The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State · ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State · ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic · ESPN2
Massachusetts at Missouri · ESPNU
Washington State at Colorado State · CBSSN
San José State at Stanford · ACC Network
App State at Boise State · FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP · ESPN+
BYU at Colorado · ESPN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.