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#9Oregon Ducks

7–1 · 4–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
9%
Big Ten title game
4%
Win the Big Ten
68%
Make the playoff
14%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.6
How the week went: playoff odds 68% → 65% · title-game odds 9% → 15%.
Playoff odds by week
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If Oregon wins out: 9% to win the Big Ten, 96% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path
Your game
…
… · CBS
#9 Oregon at #20 Iowa

Your game. Beat Iowa and your playoff odds are 81%; lose and they drop to 48%.

Final · Oregon 18–16 IowaWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · BTN
#1 Ohio State at Purdue

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Ohio State 34–10 PurdueWent the other way ✗
Root for Purdue+29.2 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
#5 Georgia at Mississippi State

Mississippi State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+3.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
LSU at #4 Alabama

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWent the other way ✗
Root for LSU+2.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Missouri winning protects it.

Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗
Root for Missouri+3.7 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · FOX
#2 Indiana at Penn State

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Penn State winning protects it; you beat Penn State — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Indiana 27–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Penn State+3.0 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · BTN
#23 Washington at Wisconsin

You already beat Wisconsin; them losing again keeps them behind you; Washington visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Washington 10–13 WisconsinWent the other way ✗
Root for Washington+1.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · FOX
Northwestern at #19 USC

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and USC winning protects it; you already beat Northwestern; them losing again keeps them behind you; USC visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · Northwestern 17–38 USCWish granted ✓
Root for USC+2.2 pp first-round-bye odds
43 more games that don't move your needle
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.