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#6Oregon Ducks

6–1 · 3–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
29%
Big Ten title game
16%
Win the Big Ten
87%
Make the playoff
42%
First-round bye
avg seed 5.0
How the week went: playoff odds 87% → 83% · title-game odds 29% → 21%.
Playoff odds by week
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If Oregon wins out: 31% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path
Your game
…
… · FS1
Wisconsin at #6 Oregon

Your game. Beat Wisconsin and your playoff odds are 88%; lose and they drop to 67%.

Final · Wisconsin 7–21 OregonWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · FOX
UCLA at #2 Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Indiana losing softens the sting of your loss to them.

Final · UCLA 6–56 IndianaWent the other way ✗
Root for UCLA+26.0 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#4 Alabama at South Carolina

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and South Carolina winning protects it.

Final · Alabama 29–22 South CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Root for South Carolina+3.4 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ABC
#3 Texas A&M at #20 LSU

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and LSU winning protects it.

Final · Texas A&M 49–25 LSUWent the other way ✗
Root for LSU+3.2 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ABC
#8 Ole Miss at #13 Oklahoma

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Oklahoma winning protects it.

Final · Ole Miss 34–26 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Root for Oklahoma+2.7 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · BTN
#23 Illinois at Washington

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Washington winning protects it; Washington visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Illinois 25–42 WashingtonWish granted ✓
Root for Washington+2.4 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ESPN
Syracuse at #7 Georgia Tech

Syracuse winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Syracuse 16–41 Georgia TechWent the other way ✗
Root for Syracuse+1.3 pp playoff odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
Minnesota at Iowa · CBS
Kennesaw State at Florida International · ESPNU
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Middle Tennessee at Delaware · ESPN2
Missouri State at New Mexico State · CBSSN
South Alabama at Georgia State · ESPN2
North Texas at Charlotte · ESPN2
California at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Boise State at Nevada · CBSSN
Northwestern at Nebraska · FS1
Rutgers at Purdue · BTN
SMU at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Virginia at North Carolina · ACC Network
Kansas State at Kansas · TNT
App State at Old Dominion · ESPNU
South Florida at Memphis · ESPN2
Bowling Green at Kent State · ESPN+
Ohio at Eastern Michigan · CBSSN
Auburn at Arkansas · SEC Network
Akron at Buffalo · ESPN+
UConn at Rice · ESPN+
Utah State at New Mexico
Missouri at Vanderbilt · ESPN
Toledo at Washington State · The CW Network
NC State at Pittsburgh · ACC Network
BYU at Iowa State · FOX
San Diego State at Fresno State · FS1
UL Monroe at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Navy · CBSSN
Temple at Tulsa · ESPN+
Ball State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Massachusetts at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Baylor at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech · ESPNU
Texas at Mississippi State · SEC Network
TCU at West Virginia · ESPN+
Stanford at Miami · ESPN
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State · ESPN+
Louisiana at Troy · ESPN+
Michigan at Michigan State · NBC
Boston College at Louisville · ACC Network
Colorado State at Wyoming · CBSSN
Tennessee at Kentucky · SEC Network
Houston at Arizona State · ESPN2
Colorado at Utah · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.