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#8Oregon Ducks

8–1 · 5–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
15%
Big Ten title game
6%
Win the Big Ten
65%
Make the playoff
12%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.8
How the week went: playoff odds 65% → 70% · title-game odds 15% → 12%.
Playoff odds by week
123456789101112

If Oregon wins out: 9% to win the Big Ten, 87% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path
Your game
…
… · FOX
Minnesota at #8 Oregon

Your game. Beat Minnesota and your playoff odds are 66%; lose and they drop to 30%.

Final · Minnesota 13–42 OregonWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · NBC
UCLA at #1 Ohio State

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · UCLA 10–48 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗
Root for UCLA+44.2 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · BTN
Wisconsin at #2 Indiana

You beat Wisconsin — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Wisconsin 7–31 IndianaWent the other way ✗
Root for Wisconsin+5.0 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
Florida at #7 Ole Miss

Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida+4.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#9 Notre Dame at #22 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Root for Pittsburgh+4.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
TCU at #12 BYU

TCU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗
Root for TCU+2.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
#13 Utah at Baylor

Baylor winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗
Root for Baylor+2.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
NC State at #15 Miami

NC State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · NC State 7–41 MiamiWent the other way ✗
Root for NC State+2.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
South Carolina at #3 Texas A&M

South Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Root for South Carolina+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · FS1
Purdue at Washington

Washington visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Purdue 13–49 WashingtonWish granted ✓
Root for Washington+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · BTN
#21 Iowa at #17 USC

You already beat Iowa; them losing again keeps them behind you; USC visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · Iowa 21–26 USCWish granted ✓
Root for USC+1.7 pp playoff odds
…
… · FOX
UCF at #6 Texas Tech

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and UCF winning protects it.

Final · UCF 9–48 Texas TechWent the other way ✗
Root for UCF+2.3 pp first-round-bye odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.