The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
6 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 12; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #2Indiana | 7–0 | 10–0 | 9.0–0.0 | >99% | 56% | >99% |
 #1Ohio State | 6–0 | 9–0 | 8.8–0.2 | 79% | 37% | >99% |
 #8Oregon | 5–1 | 8–1 | 7.6–1.4 | 15% | 6% | 65% |
 #17USC | 5–1 | 7–2 | 6.8–2.2 | 3% | <1% | 9% |
 #18Michigan | 5–1 | 7–2 | 6.9–2.1 | 4% | <1% | 6% |
 #21Iowa | 4–2 | 6–3 | 6.1–2.9 | <1% | 0% | 4% |
 Minnesota | 4–2 | 6–3 | 5.2–3.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nebraska | 4–3 | 7–3 | 4.4–4.6 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Illinois | 3–3 | 6–3 | 5.1–3.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 3–3 | 5–4 | 4.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 UCLA | 3–3 | 3–6 | 3.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Washington | 3–3 | 6–3 | 4.9–4.1 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Rutgers | 2–5 | 5–5 | 2.1–6.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Maryland | 1–5 | 4–5 | 2.1–6.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Wisconsin | 1–5 | 3–6 | 1.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Michigan State | 0–6 | 3–6 | 0.5–8.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Penn State | 0–6 | 3–6 | 2.7–6.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Purdue | 0–7 | 2–8 | 0.1–8.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.