The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
18 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #2Penn State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 7.9–1.1 | 69% | 50% | 98% |
 #3Ohio State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 7.5–1.5 | 52% | 26% | 93% |
 USC | 0–0 | 0–0 | 7.1–1.9 | 26% | 8% | 27% |
 #7Oregon | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.3–2.7 | 22% | 8% | 60% |
 #14Michigan | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.4–2.6 | 14% | 4% | 24% |
 #20Indiana | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.2–2.8 | 9% | 3% | 23% |
 Iowa | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.5–4.5 | 3% | <1% | 7% |
 Minnesota | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.2–3.8 | 1% | <1% | 3% |
 Washington | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.5–4.5 | 1% | <1% | 2% |
 #12Illinois | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–4.7 | <1% | <1% | 4% |
 Wisconsin | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Nebraska | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Maryland | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Rutgers | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Michigan State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.8–7.2 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.3–6.7 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 Purdue | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.2–7.8 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 UCLA | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.2–6.8 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.