The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tulane | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.2–1.8 | 51% | 30% | 17% |
 Memphis | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.8–2.2 | 41% | 21% | 10% |
 Army | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.9–2.1 | 37% | 19% | 9% |
 Navy | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.7–2.3 | 26% | 11% | 3% |
 South Florida | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.3–2.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% |
 UTSA | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.6–3.4 | 12% | 5% | 2% |
 East Carolina | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.2–3.8 | 5% | 2% | <1% |
 North Texas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.9–4.1 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Rice | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 UAB | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Temple | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Charlotte | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Florida Atlantic | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.