The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Navy | 2–0 | 3–0 | 5.9–2.1 | 22% | 9% | 3% |
 UAB | 0–1 | 2–1 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Tulsa | 0–1 | 1–2 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Memphis | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.3–1.7 | 52% | 30% | 19% |
 Tulane | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.1–1.9 | 42% | 23% | 13% |
 Army | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 29% | 15% | 8% |
 North Texas | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.8–2.2 | 30% | 14% | 6% |
 East Carolina | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.0–3.0 | 11% | 5% | 2% |
 UTSA | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.5–3.5 | 7% | 3% | <1% |
 South Florida | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.6–3.4 | 5% | 2% | <1% |
 Rice | 0–0 | 2–1 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Florida Atlantic | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Temple | 0–0 | 2–1 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–0 | 1–2 | 1.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.