The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Navy | 2–0 | 3–0 | 5.9–2.1 | 20% | 8% | 2% |
 UAB | 0–1 | 2–1 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–1 | 1–2 | 0.9–7.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Memphis | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.3–1.7 | 55% | 31% | 29% |
 Tulane | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.1–1.9 | 45% | 24% | 21% |
 Army | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.8–2.2 | 32% | 16% | 12% |
 North Texas | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.8–2.2 | 26% | 12% | 6% |
 East Carolina | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.0–3.0 | 10% | 4% | <1% |
 UTSA | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.5–3.5 | 6% | 2% | <1% |
 South Florida | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.6–3.4 | 5% | 2% | <1% |
 Florida Atlantic | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Rice | 0–0 | 2–1 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Temple | 0–0 | 2–1 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–0 | 1–2 | 1.6–6.4 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4).