The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#2Penn State3–0>99%#1Ohio State3–097%#5Georgia3–091%#6Oregon3–081%#24Notre Dame0–273%#4Miami3–072%#8Texas2–158%#3LSU3–053%#13Ole Miss3–046%#14Alabama2–144%#10Texas A&M3–026%#19Indiana3–025%

#6Oregon3–0 · Big Ten▼ −8pp81%

#24Notre Dame0–2 · FBS Independents▼ −24pp73%

#4Miami3–0 · ACC▲ +18pp72%

#8Texas2–1 · SEC▼ −11pp58%

#3LSU3–0 · SEC▼ −3pp53%

#13Ole Miss3–0 · SEC▲ +5pp46%

#14Alabama2–1 · SEC▲ +6pp44%

#10Texas A&M3–0 · SEC▲ +16pp26%

#19Indiana3–0 · Big Ten▲ +4pp25%

#9Illinois3–0 · Big Ten▲ +6pp23%

#11Oklahoma3–0 · SEC▲ +14pp22%

#21Michigan2–1 · Big Ten▲ +12pp21%

Arizona State2–1 · Big 12▲ +6pp20%

#15Tennessee2–1 · SEC▼ −1pp20%

#25USC3–0 · Big Ten▼ −5pp19%

TCU2–0 · Big 12▲ +1pp19%

Memphis3–0 · American Athletic▲ +6pp19%

Louisville2–0 · ACC▼ −2pp17%

UNLV3–0 · Mountain West▲ +1pp15%

…

… · NBC

#9Illinoisat#19Indiana

Final · #9 Illinois 10–63 #19 Indiana

…

… · FOX

#17Texas Techat#16Utah

Final · #17 Texas Tech 34–10 #16 Utah

…

… · ABC

#22Auburnat#11Oklahoma

Final · #22 Auburn 17–24 #11 Oklahoma

…

… · NBC

Purdueat#24Notre Dame

Final · Purdue 30–56 #24 Notre Dame

…

… · CBS

#21MichiganatNebraska

Final · #21 Michigan 30–27 Nebraska

…

… · ESPN

Tulaneat#13Ole Miss

Final · Tulane 10–45 #13 Ole Miss

…

… · ABC

Floridaat#4Miami

Final · Florida 7–26 #4 Miami

…

… · FOX

Arizona StateatBaylor

Final · Arizona State 27–24 Baylor

…

… · ESPN+

Sam Houstonat#8Texas

Final · Sam Houston 0–55 #8 Texas

…

… · ABC

ArkansasatMemphis

Final · Arkansas 31–32 Memphis

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.