🏈 Fan Watchknow what to root for

The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 14 · 2026

Week 14 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 1.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

First round · at the 8 seed

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Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

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Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

First round · at the 6 seed

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Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–046%

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Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

The slate gets ranked when this becomes the current week — too much football happens between now and then.

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.