🏈 Fan Watch

The CFP race

playoff chances, the bubble, and the games that move it
In the books
WEEK 0 · 2026
20 teams on the bubble entering week 0.

CFP chances

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP
Indiana0–099%Notre Dame0–095%Ohio State0–085%Miami0–077%Texas Tech0–067%Texas0–065%Penn State0–061%Oregon0–054%Georgia0–052%James Madison0–049%Iowa0–045%Utah0–043%

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten85%
Miami0–0 · ACC77%
Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%
Texas0–0 · SEC65%
Penn State0–0 · Big Ten61%
Oregon0–0 · Big Ten54%
Georgia0–0 · SEC52%
James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt49%
Iowa0–0 · Big Ten45%
Utah0–0 · Big 1243%
Texas A&M0–0 · SEC42%
Ole Miss0–0 · SEC38%
USC0–0 · Big Ten36%
Alabama0–0 · SEC35%
Oklahoma0–0 · SEC27%
Liberty0–0 · Conference USA20%
SMU0–0 · ACC18%
South Florida0–0 · American Athletic17%
Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC17%
Washington0–0 · Big Ten16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country
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San José StateatUSC
Final · San José State 26–42 USC
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MemphisatUNLV
Final · Memphis 27–21 UNLV
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Hawai'iatStanford
Final · Hawai'i 27–37 Stanford
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Sacramento StateatEastern Michigan
Final · Sacramento State 17–28 Eastern Michigan
Conference races:ACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 0. How the model works.