The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 7 · 2026

Week 7 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 7.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Penn State at Michigan

Penn State 56%

Who cares:Penn State ±35pp USC ±4pp Alabama ±4pp Michigan ±4pp

67 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Alabama at Tennessee

Alabama 54%

Who cares:Alabama ±30pp Tennessee ±7pp Iowa ±3pp Penn State ±3pp

55 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Missouri at Ole Miss

Ole Miss 78%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±32pp Missouri ±6pp Miami ±3pp Penn State ±3pp

59 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Florida State at Miami

Miami 91%

Who cares:Miami ±35pp SMU ±9pp South Florida ±4pp Louisville ±4pp

59 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Utah at Colorado

Utah 92%

Who cares:Utah ±33pp Iowa ±4pp Texas ±3pp Penn State ±3pp

58 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Georgia State at James Madison

James Madison 98%

Who cares:James Madison ±31pp South Florida ±8pp North Texas ±6pp Boise State ±3pp

51 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Florida at Texas

Texas 85%

Who cares:Texas ±19pp Penn State ±3pp Iowa ±3pp Vanderbilt ±2pp

34 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Virginia at SMU

SMU 80%

Who cares:SMU ±19pp Virginia ±4pp South Florida ±3pp Iowa ±2pp

31 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Arkansas at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt 86%

Who cares:Vanderbilt ±16pp Iowa ±3pp Ole Miss ±3pp Texas ±2pp

27 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Arizona State at Texas Tech

Texas Tech 93%

Who cares:BYU ±4pp South Florida ±4pp Iowa ±3pp Arizona State ±3pp

28 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.