The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#3Notre Dame5–097%#4Miami5–096%#2Georgia5–095%#1Texas4–093%#5Ohio State4–190%#7Indiana5–088%#6Alabama5–085%#12Utah4–059%#11Texas Tech5–049%#8BYU4–036%#13Oregon3–136%#9Ole Miss3–131%

#6Alabama5–0 · SEC85%

#12Utah4–0 · Big 1259%

#11Texas Tech5–0 · Big 1249%

#8BYU4–0 · Big 12▲ +2pp36%

#13Oregon3–1 · Big Ten36%

#9Ole Miss3–1 · SEC▲ +1pp31%

James Madison5–0 · Sun Belt▼ −2pp30%

#10LSU4–1 · SEC▲ +1pp22%

#15Tennessee4–1 · SEC20%

#23Boise State4–1 · Pac-12▲ +1pp19%

Liberty4–1 · Conference USA17%

#14Missouri4–1 · SEC17%

#20Iowa4–1 · Big Ten▼ −1pp17%

New Mexico4–1 · Mountain West15%

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#14Missouriat#9Ole Miss

Ole Miss 63%

Rooting for

MissouriMissouri

MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 17%If Missouri wins: 28.2%If Ole Miss wins: 10.3%IndianaCurrent playoff chance: 87.9%If Missouri wins: 88.4%If Ole Miss wins: 87.5%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 16.8%If Missouri wins: 17.3%If Ole Miss wins: 16.6%

Rooting for

Ole MissOle Miss

Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 30.8%If Ole Miss wins: 38.8%If Missouri wins: 17.4%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 84.5%If Ole Miss wins: 84.8%If Missouri wins: 84.1%PittsburghCurrent playoff chance: 6.3%If Ole Miss wins: 6.5%If Missouri wins: 5.9%

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#6Alabamaat#15Tennessee

Alabama 66%

Rooting for

AlabamaAlabama

AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 84.5%If Alabama wins: 90.3%If Tennessee wins: 73.1%New MexicoCurrent playoff chance: 15.5%If Alabama wins: 15.7%If Tennessee wins: 15%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 35.8%If Alabama wins: 36%If Tennessee wins: 35.5%

Rooting for

TennesseeTennessee

TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 19.6%If Tennessee wins: 31.1%If Alabama wins: 13.8%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 30.8%If Tennessee wins: 31.2%If Alabama wins: 30.6%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 29.7%If Tennessee wins: 30%If Alabama wins: 29.6%

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… · ABC

#3Notre Dameat#8BYU

Notre Dame 82%

Rooting for

Notre DameNotre Dame

Notre DameCurrent playoff chance: 97.1%If Notre Dame wins: 98.5%If BYU wins: 90.8%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 19.6%If Notre Dame wins: 19.8%If BYU wins: 18.4%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 95.7%If Notre Dame wins: 96%If BYU wins: 94.5%

Rooting for

BYUBYU

BYUCurrent playoff chance: 35.8%If BYU wins: 54.8%If Notre Dame wins: 31.6%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 29.7%If BYU wins: 30%If Notre Dame wins: 29.7%SMUCurrent playoff chance: 8.4%If BYU wins: 8.6%If Notre Dame wins: 8.3%

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… · FOX

#5Ohio Stateat#7Indiana

Indiana 67%

Rooting for

Ohio StateOhio State

Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 90.4%If Ohio State wins: 96.3%If Indiana wins: 87.6%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 35.8%If Ohio State wins: 36.7%If Indiana wins: 35.3%USCCurrent playoff chance: 10.4%If Ohio State wins: 10.9%If Indiana wins: 10.1%

Rooting for

IndianaIndiana

IndianaCurrent playoff chance: 87.9%If Indiana wins: 93.3%If Ohio State wins: 76.6%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 30.8%If Indiana wins: 31%If Ohio State wins: 30.5%North TexasCurrent playoff chance: 6%If Indiana wins: 6.1%If Ohio State wins: 5.8%

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#17Mississippi Stateat#10LSU

LSU 76%

Rooting for

Mississippi StateMSST

Mississippi StateCurrent playoff chance: 5.6%If Mississippi State wins: 11.8%If LSU wins: 3.6%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 30.8%If Mississippi State wins: 32.2%If LSU wins: 30.4%Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 49.1%If Mississippi State wins: 50.1%If LSU wins: 48.8%

Rooting for

LSULSU

LSUCurrent playoff chance: 22.4%If LSU wins: 26.2%If Mississippi State wins: 10.8%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 19.6%If LSU wins: 20.1%If Mississippi State wins: 18.1%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 84.5%If LSU wins: 84.9%If Mississippi State wins: 83.5%

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#16Floridaat#1Texas

Texas 87%

Rooting for

FloridaFlorida

FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 10.4%If Florida wins: 22.8%If Texas wins: 8.5%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 59.2%If Florida wins: 59.9%If Texas wins: 59.1%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 5.8%If Florida wins: 6.4%If Texas wins: 5.7%

Rooting for

TexasTexas

TexasCurrent playoff chance: 92.8%If Texas wins: 94.1%If Florida wins: 84.4%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 29.7%If Texas wins: 30%If Florida wins: 28.1%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 30.8%If Texas wins: 31.1%If Florida wins: 29.3%

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Nebraskaat#13Oregon

Oregon 72%

Rooting for

NebraskaNebraska

NebraskaCurrent playoff chance: 6.4%If Nebraska wins: 13%If Oregon wins: 3.9%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 16.8%If Nebraska wins: 18.2%If Oregon wins: 16.3%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 35.8%If Nebraska wins: 36.9%If Oregon wins: 35.4%

Rooting for

OregonOregon

OregonCurrent playoff chance: 35.8%If Oregon wins: 41.6%If Nebraska wins: 20.3%MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 4.9%If Oregon wins: 5%If Nebraska wins: 4.5%MemphisCurrent playoff chance: 6.3%If Oregon wins: 6.4%If Nebraska wins: 6%

TBD

SAT OCT 17

#12UtahatColorado

Utah 95%

Rooting for

UtahUtah

UtahCurrent playoff chance: 59.2%If Utah wins: 60.6%If Colorado wins: 35.5%LibertyCurrent playoff chance: 17.4%If Utah wins: 17.5%If Colorado wins: 15.6%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 92.8%If Utah wins: 92.9%If Colorado wins: 91.8%

Rooting for

ColoradoColorado

Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 49.1%If Colorado wins: 56%If Utah wins: 48.7%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 35.8%If Colorado wins: 37.4%If Utah wins: 35.7%LSUCurrent playoff chance: 22.4%If Colorado wins: 24.1%If Utah wins: 22.3%

TBD

SAT OCT 17

Penn StateatMichigan

Penn State 52%

Rooting for

Penn StatePenn State

Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 10.2%If Penn State wins: 17.3%If Michigan wins: 2.5%WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 6.1%If Penn State wins: 6.5%If Michigan wins: 5.8%New MexicoCurrent playoff chance: 15.5%If Penn State wins: 15.6%If Michigan wins: 15.3%

Rooting for

MichiganMichigan

MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 4.9%If Michigan wins: 8%If Penn State wins: 2%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 35.8%If Michigan wins: 36.8%If Penn State wins: 34.9%IndianaCurrent playoff chance: 87.9%If Michigan wins: 88.6%If Penn State wins: 87.2%

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… · FOX

#18Oklahoma Stateat#22Houston

Houston 84%

Rooting for

Oklahoma StateOKST

Oklahoma StateCurrent playoff chance: 0.6%If Oklahoma State wins: 1.8%If Houston wins: 0.3%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 95.7%If Oklahoma State wins: 96.2%If Houston wins: 95.6%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 84.5%If Oklahoma State wins: 85%If Houston wins: 84.5%

Rooting for

HoustonHouston

HoustonCurrent playoff chance: 2.7%If Houston wins: 3.2%If Oklahoma State wins: 0.5%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 35.8%If Houston wins: 35.9%If Oklahoma State wins: 34.9%Boise StateCurrent playoff chance: 19.4%If Houston wins: 19.4%If Oklahoma State wins: 18.9%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.