The CFP race
the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Way too early
WEEK 9 · 2026
Week 9 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 9.
The bracket as of today
12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
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4
Georgia0–073%
Georgia0–073%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
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3
Ohio State0–080%
Ohio State0–080%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
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2
Notre Dame0–099%
Notre Dame0–099%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10
Bubble watch
15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Games of the week
ranked by playoff probability in play across the countryTBD
SAT OCT 31
54 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT OCT 31
49 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT OCT 31
46 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT OCT 31
35 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT OCT 31
43 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT OCT 31
37 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT OCT 31
South Carolina at Oklahoma
Oklahoma 70%
32 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT OCT 31
40 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT OCT 31
37 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT OCT 31
35 ppplayoff odds in play
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.