The CFP race
the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Way too early
WEEK 10 · 2026
Week 10 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 10.
The bracket as of today
12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
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4
Georgia0–073%
Georgia0–073%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
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3
Ohio State0–080%
Ohio State0–080%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
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2
Notre Dame0–099%
Notre Dame0–099%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10
Bubble watch
15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Games of the week
ranked by playoff probability in play across the countryTBD
SAT NOV 7
Penn State at Washington
Washington 54%
61 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
58 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
51 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
54 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
46 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
51 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
Texas A&M at South Carolina
Texas A&M 54%
40 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
45 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
34 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State
Vanderbilt 73%
40 ppplayoff odds in play
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.