🏈 Fan Watch

The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Way too early
WEEK 10 · 2026
Week 10 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 10.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
8Ole Miss0–062%
First round · at the 8 seed
9Utah0–062%
1Notre Dame0–0100%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
5Oregon0–0>99%
First round · at the 5 seed
12James Madison0–075%
4Texas Tech0–0>99%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
6Georgia0–097%
First round · at the 6 seed
11Iowa0–046%
3Ohio State0–0>99%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
7Miami0–069%
First round · at the 7 seed
10Penn State0–060%
2Indiana0–0100%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%
Miami0–0 · ACC69%
Utah0–0 · Big 1262%
Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%
Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%
Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%
Alabama0–0 · SEC35%
Texas0–0 · SEC27%
South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%
SMU0–0 · ACC23%
Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%
USC0–0 · Big Ten18%
Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country
TBD
SAT NOV 7
Penn State at Washington
Penn State 57%
Who cares:Penn State ±36ppAlabama ±4ppOle Miss ±4ppTexas ±3pp
68 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
Georgia at Ole Miss
Georgia 53%
Who cares:Ole Miss ±31ppGeorgia ±5ppPenn State ±4ppIowa ±4pp
62 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
BYU at Utah
Utah 78%
Who cares:Utah ±36ppBYU ±10ppPenn State ±4ppIowa ±3pp
68 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
Iowa at Northwestern
Iowa 81%
Who cares:Iowa ±34ppMiami ±5ppOle Miss ±4ppUtah ±4pp
66 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
Alabama at LSU
Alabama 66%
Who cares:Alabama ±29ppIowa ±4ppPenn State ±3ppTexas ±3pp
54 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
Texas at Missouri
Texas 56%
Who cares:Texas ±26ppMissouri ±4ppPenn State ±3ppIowa ±3pp
48 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
THU NOV 5
James Madison at Southern Miss
James Madison 93%
Who cares:James Madison ±29ppSouth Florida ±7ppNorth Texas ±5ppBoise State ±2pp
50 ppplayoff odds in play
…
…
Miami at Notre Dame
Notre Dame 83%
Who cares:Miami ±25ppUtah ±4ppPenn State ±3ppSMU ±3pp
45 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
FRI NOV 6
South Florida at East Carolina
South Florida 67%
Who cares:South Florida ±20ppLouisville ±2ppNorth Texas ±1ppJames Madison ±1pp
32 ppplayoff odds in play
TBD
SAT NOV 7
Texas A&M at South Carolina
Texas A&M 61%
Who cares:Texas A&M ±18ppIowa ±3ppAlabama ±3ppOle Miss ±2pp
29 ppplayoff odds in play
Conference races:ACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big SkyBig South-OVCBig TenCAAConference USAMid-AmericanMountain WestMVFCPac-12SECSouthernSouthlandSun BeltSWACUAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.