The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#3Notre Dame5–097%#4Miami5–095%#2Georgia5–095%#1Texas4–092%#5Ohio State4–191%#7Indiana5–089%#6Alabama5–085%#12Utah4–060%#11Texas Tech5–049%#13Oregon3–136%#8BYU4–033%James Madison5–032%

#6Alabama5–0 · SEC▲ +20pp85%

#12Utah4–0 · Big 12▼ −4pp60%

#11Texas Tech5–0 · Big 12▼ −4pp49%

#13Oregon3–1 · Big Ten▲ +8pp36%

#8BYU4–0 · Big 12▲ +11pp33%

James Madison5–0 · Sun Belt32%

#9Ole Miss3–1 · SEC▼ −4pp30%

#10LSU4–1 · SEC▼ −22pp21%

#15Tennessee4–1 · SEC▲ +2pp20%

#23Boise State4–1 · Pac-12▼ −1pp19%

#20Iowa4–1 · Big Ten▼ −11pp18%

Liberty4–1 · Conference USA▼ −3pp17%

#14Missouri4–1 · SEC▲ +11pp17%

New Mexico4–1 · Mountain West▲ +12pp15%

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… · ABC

#2Georgiaat#6Alabama

Alabama 53%

Rooting for

GeorgiaGeorgia

GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 95.4%If Georgia wins: 98.2%If Alabama wins: 92.8%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 29.9%If Georgia wins: 31.2%If Alabama wins: 28.7%MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 16.7%If Georgia wins: 17.5%If Alabama wins: 16.1%

Rooting for

AlabamaAlabama

AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 84.8%If Alabama wins: 91.2%If Georgia wins: 77.5%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 19.8%If Alabama wins: 20.2%If Georgia wins: 19.3%LSUCurrent playoff chance: 21.4%If Alabama wins: 21.7%If Georgia wins: 21%

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… · CBS

#21UCLAat#13Oregon

Oregon 81%

Rooting for

UCLAUCLA

UCLACurrent playoff chance: 6.4%If UCLA wins: 13.3%If Oregon wins: 4.8%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 29.9%If UCLA wins: 30.9%If Oregon wins: 29.6%Boise StateCurrent playoff chance: 18.6%If UCLA wins: 19.7%If Oregon wins: 18.4%

Rooting for

OregonOregon

OregonCurrent playoff chance: 36.1%If Oregon wins: 39.8%If UCLA wins: 20.4%WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 6.2%If Oregon wins: 6.3%If UCLA wins: 6%TCUCurrent playoff chance: 0.7%If Oregon wins: 0.7%If UCLA wins: 0.5%

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… · ESPN

#9Ole MissatVanderbilt

Vanderbilt 51%

Rooting for

Ole MissOle Miss

Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 29.9%If Ole Miss wins: 39.7%If Vanderbilt wins: 20.4%OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 7.6%If Ole Miss wins: 7.8%If Vanderbilt wins: 7.3%MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 16.7%If Ole Miss wins: 17%If Vanderbilt wins: 16.5%

Rooting for

VanderbiltVanderbilt

VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 6%If Vanderbilt wins: 9.1%If Ole Miss wins: 2.9%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 19.8%If Vanderbilt wins: 20.8%If Ole Miss wins: 18.7%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 84.8%If Vanderbilt wins: 85.5%If Ole Miss wins: 84.1%

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… · The CW Network

#23Boise StateatFresno State

Fresno State 57%

Rooting for

Boise StateBoise State

Boise StateCurrent playoff chance: 18.6%If Boise State wins: 29.3%If Fresno State wins: 10.5%FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 9.5%If Boise State wins: 9.7%If Fresno State wins: 9.3%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 84.8%If Boise State wins: 85%If Fresno State wins: 84.6%

Rooting for

Fresno StateFresno State

Fresno StateCurrent playoff chance: 7.5%If Fresno State wins: 11.1%If Boise State wins: 2.9%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Fresno State wins: 32.5%If Boise State wins: 30.3%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 36.1%If Fresno State wins: 36.8%If Boise State wins: 35.3%

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#20IowaatWashington

Iowa 50%

Rooting for

IowaIowa

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 18.2%If Iowa wins: 26%If Washington wins: 10.2%Boise StateCurrent playoff chance: 18.6%If Iowa wins: 18.9%If Washington wins: 18.4%NorthwesternCurrent playoff chance: 5.6%If Iowa wins: 5.8%If Washington wins: 5.4%

Rooting for

WashingtonWashington

WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 6.2%If Washington wins: 9.6%If Iowa wins: 2.9%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 36.1%If Washington wins: 37.1%If Iowa wins: 35.2%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 11.6%If Washington wins: 12.3%If Iowa wins: 11%

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… · NBC

#19USCatPenn State

Penn State 66%

Rooting for

USCUSC

USCCurrent playoff chance: 11%If USC wins: 20.4%If Penn State wins: 6%UCLACurrent playoff chance: 6.4%If USC wins: 7.1%If Penn State wins: 6.1%IndianaCurrent playoff chance: 89.1%If USC wins: 89.6%If Penn State wins: 88.8%

Rooting for

Penn StatePenn State

Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 11.6%If Penn State wins: 16.1%If USC wins: 3%MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 5%If Penn State wins: 5.4%If USC wins: 4.3%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 33.3%If Penn State wins: 33.6%If USC wins: 32.8%

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… · ESPN

Kansasat#12Utah

Utah 89%

Rooting for

KansasKansas

Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 49.3%If Kansas wins: 55.1%If Utah wins: 48.6%KansasCurrent playoff chance: 1.4%If Kansas wins: 5.2%If Utah wins: 0.9%BaylorCurrent playoff chance: 3.3%If Kansas wins: 4.8%If Utah wins: 3.1%

Rooting for

UtahUtah

UtahCurrent playoff chance: 59.6%If Utah wins: 62.4%If Kansas wins: 37%USCCurrent playoff chance: 11%If Utah wins: 11%If Kansas wins: 10.5%SMUCurrent playoff chance: 8.2%If Utah wins: 8.3%If Kansas wins: 7.8%

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… · ABC

Texas A&Mat#14Missouri

Missouri 58%

Rooting for

Texas A&MTexas A&M

Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 9.3%If Texas A&M wins: 14.9%If Missouri wins: 5.2%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 19.8%If Texas A&M wins: 20.4%If Missouri wins: 19.3%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas A&M wins: 32%If Missouri wins: 31.2%

Rooting for

MissouriMissouri

MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 16.7%If Missouri wins: 22.7%If Texas A&M wins: 8.6%LSUCurrent playoff chance: 21.4%If Missouri wins: 21.7%If Texas A&M wins: 20.9%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 29.9%If Missouri wins: 30.2%If Texas A&M wins: 29.4%

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… · ESPN

Iowa Stateat#8BYU

BYU 65%

Rooting for

Iowa StateIowa State

Iowa StateCurrent playoff chance: 3.5%If Iowa State wins: 7.1%If BYU wins: 1.6%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 59.6%If Iowa State wins: 60.6%If BYU wins: 59.1%ArizonaCurrent playoff chance: 6.3%If Iowa State wins: 6.9%If BYU wins: 5.9%

Rooting for

BYUBYU

BYUCurrent playoff chance: 33.3%If BYU wins: 40.1%If Iowa State wins: 20.8%North Dakota StateCurrent playoff chance: 6.3%If BYU wins: 6.5%If Iowa State wins: 6.1%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If BYU wins: 31.7%If Iowa State wins: 31.3%

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… · FOX

#7IndianaatNebraska

Indiana 82%

Rooting for

IndianaIndiana

IndianaCurrent playoff chance: 89.1%If Indiana wins: 91.9%If Nebraska wins: 76%USCCurrent playoff chance: 11%If Indiana wins: 11.1%If Nebraska wins: 10.5%North TexasCurrent playoff chance: 6%If Indiana wins: 6.1%If Nebraska wins: 5.6%

Rooting for

NebraskaNebraska

NebraskaCurrent playoff chance: 6.9%If Nebraska wins: 15.1%If Indiana wins: 5.1%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 18.2%If Nebraska wins: 19.8%If Indiana wins: 17.8%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 36.1%If Nebraska wins: 37.5%If Indiana wins: 35.8%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.