The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 6 · 2026

Week 6 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 6.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–043%

→

Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

Miami0–055%

→

Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–041%

→

Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–046%

→

Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Ole Miss 50%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±22pp Vanderbilt ±21pp Alabama ±2pp Georgia ±1pp

47 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Iowa at Washington

Washington 55%

Who cares:Iowa ±25pp Washington ±16pp Penn State ±2pp Oregon ±1pp

47 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

USC at Penn State

Penn State 68%

Who cares:Penn State ±26pp USC ±23pp Ohio State ±1pp Washington ±1pp

51 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Georgia at Alabama

Georgia 56%

Who cares:Georgia ±20pp Alabama ±20pp Ole Miss ±2pp Vanderbilt ±2pp

46 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Texas A&M at Missouri

Missouri 51%

Who cares:Texas A&M ±19pp Missouri ±11pp Georgia ±2pp Ole Miss ±1pp

38 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Texas at Oklahoma

Texas 60%

Who cares:Texas ±21pp Oklahoma ±14pp

35 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

THU OCT 8

South Florida at UTSA

UTSA 52%

Who cares:South Florida ±16pp UTSA ±9pp James Madison ±2pp

27 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Kansas at Utah

Utah 89%

Who cares:Utah ±21pp Texas Tech ±5pp Georgia ±2pp Vanderbilt ±2pp

35 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Tennessee at Arkansas

Tennessee 58%

Who cares:Tennessee ±13pp Texas ±2pp Arkansas ±2pp Missouri ±1pp

21 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

James Madison at Georgia Southern

James Madison 84%

Who cares:James Madison ±23pp North Texas ±2pp UTSA ±2pp South Florida ±2pp

31 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.