The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 5 · 2026

Week 5 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 5.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–043%

→

Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

Miami0–055%

→

Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–041%

→

Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–046%

→

Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Miami at Clemson

Miami 62%

Who cares:Miami ±28pp Clemson ±14pp SMU ±4pp Louisville ±2pp

47 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Ohio State at Iowa

Ohio State 57%

Who cares:Iowa ±23pp Ohio State ±16pp USC ±2pp Michigan ±1pp

43 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Washington at USC

USC 62%

Who cares:USC ±18pp Washington ±16pp Iowa ±2pp Oregon ±1pp

37 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Vanderbilt at Georgia

Georgia 75%

Who cares:Vanderbilt ±20pp Georgia ±19pp SMU ±2pp

40 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

FRI OCT 2

Penn State at Northwestern

Penn State 71%

Who cares:Penn State ±21pp Iowa ±3pp Ole Miss ±2pp Oklahoma ±1pp

34 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Texas Tech at Colorado

Texas Tech 89%

Who cares:Texas Tech ±25pp Utah ±5pp Kansas State ±2pp Iowa ±2pp

38 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Marshall at James Madison

James Madison 88%

Who cares:James Madison ±23pp South Florida ±2pp Old Dominion ±2pp Tennessee ±2pp

37 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Alabama at Mississippi State

Alabama 71%

Who cares:Alabama ±15pp Ole Miss ±2pp Texas ±2pp Oklahoma ±1pp

27 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Louisville at NC State

Louisville 51%

Who cares:Louisville ±11pp NC State ±4pp Miami ±2pp

18 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Auburn at Tennessee

Tennessee 70%

Who cares:Tennessee ±11pp Auburn ±6pp Ole Miss ±2pp Vanderbilt ±1pp

22 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.