The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#3Notre Dame4–098%#2Georgia4–095%#4Miami4–091%#6Indiana4–089%#1Texas4–089%#5Ohio State3–186%#7Alabama4–065%#13Utah4–064%#12Texas Tech4–053%#11LSU3–143%#8Florida4–034%#9Ole Miss3–134%

#7Alabama4–0 · SEC▲ +18pp65%

#13Utah4–0 · Big 12▲ +8pp64%

#12Texas Tech4–0 · Big 12▲ +3pp53%

#11LSU3–1 · SEC▲ +15pp43%

#8Florida4–0 · SEC▲ +29pp34%

#9Ole Miss3–1 · SEC▼ −24pp34%

James Madison4–0 · Sun Belt▼ −3pp31%

#14Iowa4–0 · Big Ten▲ +1pp29%

#15Oregon3–1 · Big Ten▲ +6pp28%

#10BYU3–0 · Big 12▲ +3pp22%

Liberty3–1 · Conference USA▼ −5pp20%

Penn State3–1 · Big Ten▼ −33pp20%

#22Boise State3–1 · Pac-12▲ +14pp19%

#17Tennessee3–1 · SEC▼ −4pp17%

…

… · CBS

#5Ohio Stateat#14Iowa

Final · #5 Ohio State 31–14 #14 Iowa

…

… · ABC

#8Floridaat#25Missouri

Final · #8 Florida 17–45 #25 Missouri

…

… · ABC

#7Alabamaat#16Mississippi State

Final · #7 Alabama 56–23 #16 Mississippi State

…

… · ESPN

#10BYUatTCU

Final · #10 BYU 17–10 TCU

…

… · FOX

#12Texas TechatColorado

Final · #12 Texas Tech 29–7 Colorado

…

… · NBC

Washingtonat#18USC

Final · Washington 21–25 #18 USC

…

… · ABC

#4MiamiatClemson

Final · #4 Miami 41–13 Clemson

…

… · ESPNU

MarshallatJames Madison

Final · Marshall 17–45 James Madison

…

… · ESPN

Auburnat#17Tennessee

Final · Auburn 14–24 #17 Tennessee

…

… · FOX

Penn StateatNorthwestern

Final · Penn State 13–34 Northwestern

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.