🏈 Fan Watch

#15Oregon Ducks

3–1 · 1–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
The Week 5 recap

Oregon won at USC and came home without a timeline for Dante Moore

Oregon beat USC 41-27 in its Big Ten opener, then entered an open week with no return timeline for Dante Moore. Here is the Big Ten slate worth watching.

Read the rooting guide →
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore holds a challenge coin at Autzen Stadium.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore at Autzen Stadium.
CreditPhoto creditNational Guard photo by John Hughel, Oregon Military Department Public AffairsWikimedia Commons · Public domainCropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Oregon wanted
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BTN
Impact 1
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Rutgers
Final · Indiana 47–15 RutgersWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.5-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection33% if Rutgers won27% with the other result6.5-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance
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FOX
Impact 2
Penn State
at
Rooted for
Northwestern
Final · Penn State 13–34 NorthwesternWish granted ✓
Projected 2.7-point playoff boost

Northwestern won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 9 game against Oregon.

Entering-week projection30% if Northwestern won27% with the other result2.7-point differenceOregon playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 3
Texas Tech
at
Rooted for
Colorado
Final · Texas Tech 29–7 ColoradoWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if Colorado won28% with the other result1.9-point differenceOregon playoff chance
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BTN
Impact 4
Purdue
at
Rooted for
Illinois
Final · Purdue 24–17 IllinoisWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Purdue won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if Illinois won27% with the other result1.6-point differenceOregon playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 5
Rooted for
Arkansas
at
Texas A&M
Final · Arkansas 7–34 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Arkansas won28% with the other result1.5-point differenceOregon playoff chance
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BTN
Impact 6
Rooted for
Michigan State
at
Wisconsin
Final · Michigan State 3–31 WisconsinWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Wisconsin won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Michigan State won28% with the other result1.5-point differenceOregon playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 7
Rooted for
Michigan
at
Minnesota
Final · Michigan 14–20 MinnesotaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Minnesota won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Michigan won27% with the other result1.4-point differenceOregon playoff chance
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CBS
Impact 8
Rooted for
Ohio State
at
Iowa
Final · Ohio State 31–14 IowaWish granted ✓
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Ohio State won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 10 game against Oregon.

Entering-week projection29% if Ohio State won27% with the other result1.3-point differenceOregon playoff chance
48 other games had little impact
Washington at USC · NBC
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State · CBSSN
North Texas at Tulsa · ESPN
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Liberty at Delaware · CBSSN
Memphis at Charlotte · ESPN+
Alabama at Mississippi State · ABC
Middle Tennessee at Kansas · ESPNU
UCF at Houston · ESPN2
West Virginia at Iowa State · TNT
Boston College at SMU · The CW Network
Notre Dame at North Carolina · ESPN
Stanford at Wake Forest · ACC Network
Syracuse at UConn · CBSSN
Navy at Air Force · CBS
Vanderbilt at Georgia · SEC Network
Western Michigan at Buffalo · ESPN+
Toledo at Ball State · ESPN+
Florida at Missouri · ABC
Auburn at Tennessee · ESPN
California at UNLV · CBSSN
Louisville at NC State · ACC Network
Virginia at Florida State · ESPN2
Wyoming at North Dakota State · The CW Network
Akron at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Ohio at Kent State · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Old Dominion at Georgia State · ESPN+
Marshall at James Madison · ESPNU
Maryland at Nebraska · FS1
UTEP at New Mexico · MW+
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Oregon State at Colorado State · USA Network
BYU at TCU · ESPN
UTSA at Rice · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
UL Monroe at South Alabama · ESPN+
Miami at Clemson · ABC
Utah State at Boise State · CBSSN
Temple at South Florida · ESPNU
Army at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Arkansas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Fresno State at Washington State · USA Network
Baylor at Arizona State · ESPN
Texas State at San Diego State · The CW Network
Cincinnati at Arizona · FOX
San José State at Hawai'i · MW+
The rooting list was:Oregon is off, then Rutgers, Northwestern, Colorado, Illinois, Arkansas, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.