The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
15 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #6Indiana | 1–0 | 4–0 | 8.0–1.0 | 69% | 49% | 89% |
 #5Ohio State | 1–0 | 3–1 | 7.1–1.9 | 50% | 29% | 86% |
 #15Oregon | 1–0 | 3–1 | 6.6–2.4 | 27% | 8% | 28% |
 #14Iowa | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.6–2.4 | 25% | 7% | 29% |
 Nebraska | 1–0 | 4–0 | 4.9–4.1 | 3% | <1% | 6% |
 #23UCLA | 2–0 | 4–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 5% | <1% | 5% |
 Wisconsin | 1–0 | 3–1 | 5.7–3.3 | 5% | <1% | 1% |
 Minnesota | 1–0 | 3–1 | 3.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #18USC | 1–1 | 4–1 | 4.4–4.6 | 2% | <1% | 11% |
 Penn State | 0–1 | 3–1 | 6.5–2.5 | 11% | 4% | 20% |
 Michigan | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | 6% |
 Washington | 0–1 | 3–1 | 3.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | 6% |
 Illinois | 0–1 | 2–2 | 3.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 0–1 | 2–1 | 3.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Michigan State | 0–1 | 2–2 | 2.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Maryland | 0–1 | 2–2 | 1.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Purdue | 0–1 | 1–3 | 1.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Rutgers | 0–1 | 1–3 | 1.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.