The ACC race
17 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #4Miami | 2–0 | 4–0 | 8.4–0.6 | 95% | 77% | 91% |
 Virginia | 1–0 | 3–1 | 6.7–2.3 | 26% | 6% | 9% |
 Pittsburgh | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.3–2.7 | 20% | 5% | 6% |
 Duke | 1–0 | 4–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 12% | 3% | 4% |
 Clemson | 2–0 | 3–1 | 5.0–3.0 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Virginia Tech | 1–0 | 4–0 | 4.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #21SMU | 1–1 | 3–1 | 6.7–2.3 | 24% | 5% | 8% |
 Louisville | 1–1 | 2–2 | 6.1–2.9 | 16% | 3% | 5% |
 Wake Forest | 1–1 | 3–1 | 4.3–4.7 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 California | 1–1 | 2–2 | 2.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Stanford | 1–2 | 2–2 | 2.4–6.6 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 NC State | 0–1 | 2–2 | 4.6–4.4 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida State | 0–1 | 2–2 | 2.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Georgia Tech | 0–1 | 1–3 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 North Carolina | 0–1 | 2–1 | 1.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Boston College | 0–1 | 2–2 | 1.8–6.2 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Syracuse | 0–2 | 1–2 | 1.3–7.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.