The ACC race
17 teams · two title-game spots
Way too early
WEEK 5 · 2026
Week 5 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 5.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miami | 0–0 | 0–0 | 7.6–1.4 | 67% | 47% | 55% |
 SMU | 0–0 | 0–0 | 7.1–1.9 | 44% | 21% | 23% |
 Louisville | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.2–2.8 | 27% | 11% | 11% |
 Clemson | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.5–2.5 | 16% | 7% | 9% |
 NC State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.6–3.4 | 12% | 3% | 3% |
 Virginia | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.4–3.6 | 10% | 3% | 3% |
 Pittsburgh | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.2–3.8 | 8% | 2% | 2% |
 Duke | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.7–4.3 | 6% | 2% | 2% |
 Georgia Tech | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–3.7 | 5% | 1% | 1% |
 Wake Forest | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.6–5.4 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.2–4.8 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 California | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Virginia Tech | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Stanford | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.4–6.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Boston College | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 North Carolina | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Syracuse | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.8–7.2 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.