The Pac-12 race
8 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
8 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #22Boise State | 0–0 | 3–1 | 5.3–1.7 | 72% | 47% | 19% |
 Fresno State | 0–0 | 3–1 | 4.7–2.3 | 52% | 27% | 4% |
 Washington State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 4.0–3.0 | 30% | 12% | <1% |
 Texas State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 3.7–3.3 | 22% | 8% | <1% |
 San Diego State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 3.2–3.8 | 13% | 3% | <1% |
 Utah State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.6–4.4 | 5% | 1% | <1% |
 Oregon State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 2.5–4.5 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 2.1–4.9 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.