The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
Way too early
WEEK 5 · 2026
Week 5 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 5.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Georgia | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.5–2.5 | 46% | 29% | 73% |
 Ole Miss | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.2–2.8 | 37% | 21% | 61% |
 Texas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.8–3.2 | 24% | 12% | 42% |
 Vanderbilt | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.6–3.4 | 19% | 9% | 35% |
 Texas A&M | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.4–3.6 | 16% | 7% | 32% |
 Alabama | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.3–3.7 | 16% | 7% | 29% |
 Tennessee | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.0–4.0 | 11% | 4% | 17% |
 Oklahoma | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.8–4.2 | 10% | 4% | 20% |
 Missouri | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.6–4.4 | 7% | 3% | 12% |
 South Carolina | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.4–4.6 | 5% | 2% | 8% |
 LSU | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.0–5.0 | 3% | 1% | 6% |
 Auburn | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.8–5.2 | 2% | <1% | 5% |
 Florida | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.0–6.0 | 1% | <1% | 2% |
 Arkansas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.9–6.1 | 1% | <1% | 1% |
 Mississippi State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.3–6.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kentucky | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.3–6.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.