The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #2Georgia | 2–0 | 4–0 | 7.6–1.4 | 70% | 46% | 95% |
 #1Texas | 1–0 | 4–0 | 7.0–2.0 | 49% | 23% | 89% |
 #7Alabama | 2–0 | 4–0 | 6.6–2.4 | 38% | 18% | 65% |
 #8Florida | 2–0 | 4–0 | 5.5–3.5 | 12% | 3% | 34% |
 #16Mississippi State | 2–0 | 4–0 | 4.5–4.5 | 3% | <1% | 7% |
 #11LSU | 1–1 | 3–1 | 5.6–3.4 | 14% | 5% | 43% |
 #9Ole Miss | 1–1 | 3–1 | 4.6–4.4 | 5% | 2% | 34% |
 Auburn | 1–1 | 3–1 | 3.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 #24Kentucky | 1–1 | 3–1 | 2.8–6.2 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 #17Tennessee | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.6–4.4 | 3% | 1% | 17% |
 Oklahoma | 0–1 | 2–2 | 4.2–4.8 | 3% | <1% | 7% |
 Vanderbilt | 0–1 | 3–1 | 3.9–5.1 | 2% | <1% | 7% |
 #25Missouri | 0–1 | 3–1 | 3.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | 5% |
 Texas A&M | 0–2 | 2–2 | 3.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 7% |
 South Carolina | 0–2 | 2–2 | 3.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Arkansas | 0–1 | 2–2 | 1.8–7.2 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.