The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #5Texas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.5–2.5 | 42% | 26% | 63% |
 #3Georgia | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.1–2.9 | 33% | 18% | 65% |
 #8Texas A&M | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 22% | 12% | 44% |
 #9Ole Miss | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 23% | 12% | 42% |
 #13Alabama | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 23% | 11% | 36% |
 #10Oklahoma | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.2–3.8 | 15% | 7% | 32% |
 Vanderbilt | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.2–3.8 | 12% | 4% | 12% |
 South Carolina | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.0–4.0 | 10% | 4% | 11% |
 #11LSU | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.9–4.1 | 9% | 4% | 22% |
 #20Tennessee | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–4.7 | 4% | 2% | 8% |
 #25Missouri | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.9–5.1 | 3% | <1% | 4% |
 Florida | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.6–5.4 | 3% | <1% | 4% |
 Auburn | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Mississippi State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arkansas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.4–6.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kentucky | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.7–7.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (preseason). How the model works.