The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#6Indiana0–093%#1Ohio State0–092%#4Notre Dame0–090%#7Miami0–075%#2Oregon0–072%#3Georgia0–065%#12Texas Tech0–064%#5Texas0–063%#8Texas A&M0–044%#18Penn State0–044%#9Ole Miss0–042%James Madison0–038%

#7Miami0–0 · ACC▼ −1pp75%

#2Oregon0–0 · Big Ten▲ +18pp72%

#3Georgia0–0 · SEC▲ +13pp65%

#12Texas Tech0–0 · Big 12▼ −2pp64%

#5Texas0–0 · SEC▼ −1pp63%

#8Texas A&M0–0 · SEC▲ +2pp44%

#18Penn State0–0 · Big Ten▼ −18pp44%

#9Ole Miss0–0 · SEC▲ +4pp42%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt▼ −11pp38%

#21Utah0–0 · Big 12▼ −5pp38%

#13Alabama0–0 · SEC▲ +1pp36%

#14USC1–0 · Big Ten▼ −3pp33%

#10Oklahoma0–0 · SEC▲ +5pp32%

#22Iowa0–0 · Big Ten▼ −16pp30%

#11LSU0–0 · SEC▲ +7pp22%

Liberty0–0 · Conference USA20%

#19SMU0–0 · ACC▲ +1pp19%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic▲ +1pp18%

#17Washington0–0 · Big Ten▲ +1pp17%

…

… · ABC

#24Louisvilleat#9Ole Miss

Final · #24 Louisville 38–41 #9 Ole Miss

…

… · ESPNU

LibertyatJames Madison

Final · Liberty 13–20 James Madison

…

… · ESPN

#7MiamiatStanford

Final · #7 Miami 45–6 Stanford

…

… · ESPN

#19SMUatFlorida State

Final · #19 SMU 27–24 Florida State

…

… · CBS

Boise Stateat#2Oregon

Final · Boise State 27–34 #2 Oregon

…

… · ESPN

Texas Stateat#5Texas

Final · Texas State 7–59 #5 Texas

…

… · ABC

East Carolinaat#13Alabama

Final · East Carolina 10–48 #13 Alabama

…

… · NBC

Washington Stateat#17Washington

Final · Washington State 10–24 #17 Washington

…

… · FOX

North Texasat#6Indiana

Final · North Texas 16–52 #6 Indiana

…

… · FOX

Fresno Stateat#14USC

Final · Fresno State 0–39 #14 USC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (preseason). How the model works.