South Florida Bulls
0–0 · 0–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Way too early
WEEK 1 · 2026
44%
American title game
27%
Win the American
16%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 10.8
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-1 job: beat Florida International.
If South Florida wins out: 65% to win the American, 59% to make the playoff.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves South Florida's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Florida International at South Florida
Your game. Beat Florida International and your playoff odds are 17%; lose and they drop to 10%.
South Florida 91%
Just win
No other game this week meaningfully moves South Florida's odds. Enjoy the football.
48 more games that don't move your needle
East Carolina at Alabama · ABC
SMU at Florida State · ESPN
Hawai'i at Stanford
Memphis at UNLV
San José State at USC
New Mexico State at Florida State
North Carolina at TCU · ESPN
NC State at Virginia · ESPN
Akron at Wake Forest
Massachusetts at Rutgers
Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Toledo at Michigan State
Fresno State at USC
San José State at Eastern Michigan
Miami at Stanford · ESPN
Florida Atlantic at Florida
UL Monroe at Mississippi State
UTEP at Oklahoma
Kent State at South Carolina
Texas State at Texas
Missouri State at Texas A&M
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Boston College at Cincinnati
Oregon State at Houston
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh
Tulane at Duke
UCLA at California
UAB at Illinois
North Texas at Indiana
Northern Illinois at Iowa
Western Michigan at Michigan
Ohio at Nebraska
Ball State at Ohio State
Boise State at Oregon
Marshall at Penn State
Washington State at Washington
Wyoming at Colorado State
Arkansas State at Memphis
Western Kentucky at Nevada
UNLV at Hawai'i
Central Michigan at New Mexico
Liberty at James Madison
Sam Houston at Troy
Baylor at Auburn · ABC
Clemson at LSU · ABC
Louisville at Ole Miss · ABC
Notre Dame at Wisconsin
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.