South Florida Bulls
0–0 · 0–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Way too early
WEEK 9 · 2026
44%
American title game
27%
Win the American
16%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 10.8
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-9 job: beat UAB.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves South Florida's pathYour game
TBD
SAT OCT 31
UAB at South Florida
Your game. Beat UAB and your playoff odds are 17%; lose and they drop to 5%.
South Florida 93%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
THU OCT 29
Troy at James Madison
Troy winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
James Madison 91%
TBD
THU OCT 29
Florida Atlantic at North Texas
American Athletic race: North Texas losing helps your spot in the standings; Florida Atlantic visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.
North Texas 91%
TBD
SAT OCT 31
Army at Memphis
American Athletic race: Army losing helps your spot in the standings; Memphis visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.
Memphis 57%
TBD
SAT OCT 31
Temple at East Carolina
American Athletic race: East Carolina losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play East Carolina in week 10.
East Carolina 86%
49 more games that don't move your needle
Tulane at Charlotte
Delaware at Western Kentucky
Sam Houston at Missouri State
Jacksonville State at New Mexico State
Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee
Missouri at Arkansas
Florida at Georgia
Auburn at Ole Miss
South Carolina at Oklahoma
Mississippi State at Texas
Arizona at Texas Tech
Arizona State at BYU
Baylor at UCF
Kansas at TCU
Kansas State at Colorado
Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Utah at Cincinnati
California at NC State
SMU at Syracuse
Boston College at Duke
Clemson at Florida State
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh
Miami at North Carolina
Stanford at Louisville
Virginia at Wake Forest
Minnesota at Indiana
Wisconsin at Iowa
Illinois at Maryland
Washington at Nebraska
Northwestern at Oregon
Purdue at Penn State
Michigan at Rutgers
Nevada at UCLA
Ohio State at USC
Navy at Notre Dame
Texas State at Boise State
Washington State at San Diego State
Colorado State at Utah State
Oregon State at Fresno State
UConn at Air Force
New Mexico at San José State
Northern Illinois at UNLV
Bowling Green at Western Michigan
App State at Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State
Florida International at Liberty
Southern Miss at UL Monroe
Marshall at Old Dominion
Louisiana Tech at South Alabama
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.