South Florida Bulls
0–0 · 0–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Way too early
WEEK 4 · 2026
44%
American title game
27%
Win the American
16%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 10.8
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Bowling Green.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves South Florida's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 26
South Florida at Bowling Green
Your game. Beat Bowling Green and your playoff odds are 17%; lose and they drop to 10%.
South Florida 84%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
SAT SEP 26
James Madison at Old Dominion
Old Dominion winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
James Madison 59%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Army at Temple
American Athletic race: Army losing helps your spot in the standings; Temple visits your schedule in week 5 — keep them ranked.
Army 70%
TBD
FRI SEP 25
Navy at UAB
American Athletic race: Navy losing helps your spot in the standings; UAB visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.
Navy 72%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Rice at Fresno State
Rice winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Fresno State 91%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Colorado State at UTSA
American Athletic race: UTSA losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play UTSA in week 6.
UTSA 90%
51 more games that don't move your needle
Southern Miss at Tulane
Liberty at Coastal Carolina
Clemson at California
South Carolina at Alabama
Tulsa at Arkansas
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Ole Miss at Florida
Oklahoma at Georgia
Texas A&M at LSU
Missouri at Mississippi State
Texas at Tennessee
Arizona at Washington State
Sam Houston at Texas Tech
Houston at Georgia Southern
Colorado at Baylor
Kansas State at Cincinnati
TCU at UCF
Utah at Iowa State
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Central Michigan at Miami
Delaware at Virginia
Georgia Tech at Stanford
Missouri State at SMU
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Wake Forest at Louisville
Northwestern at Indiana
UCLA at Maryland
Iowa at Michigan
Nebraska at Michigan State
Illinois at Ohio State
Wisconsin at Penn State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Oregon at USC
Minnesota at Washington
San Diego State at Toledo
Troy at Utah State
Oregon State at UTEP
Boise State at Western Michigan
UConn at Miami (OH)
Louisiana at Charlotte
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe
Air Force at Nevada
Hawai'i at Wyoming
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
UNLV at Akron
App State at NC State
South Alabama at Kentucky
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Ball State at Kent State
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.