South Florida Bulls

0–0 · 0–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

62%

American title game

41%

Win the American

24%

Make the playoff

First-round bye

avg seed 11.6

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-4 job: beat Bowling Green.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4

If South Florida wins out: 69% to win the American, 56% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves South Florida's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 26

South Florida at Bowling Green

Your game. Beat Bowling Green and your playoff odds are 25%; lose and they drop to 16%.

South Florida 90%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT SEP 26

James Madison at Old Dominion

Old Dominion winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

James Madison 73%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Colorado State at UTSA

American Athletic race: UTSA losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play UTSA in week 6.

UTSA 91%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Utah at Iowa State

Iowa State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 76%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Army at Temple

American Athletic race: Army losing helps your spot in the standings; Temple visits your schedule in week 5 — keep them ranked.

Army 72%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

South Carolina at Alabama

South Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Alabama 80%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Ole Miss at Florida

Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Ole Miss 79%

50 more games that don't move your needle

Navy at UAB

Oregon at USC

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Clemson at California

Tulsa at Arkansas

Oklahoma at Georgia

Texas A&M at LSU

Missouri at Mississippi State

Texas at Tennessee

Arizona at Washington State

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Houston at Georgia Southern

Colorado at Baylor

Kansas State at Cincinnati

TCU at UCF

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Central Michigan at Miami

Delaware at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Stanford

Missouri State at SMU

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Wake Forest at Louisville

Northwestern at Indiana

UCLA at Maryland

Iowa at Michigan

Nebraska at Michigan State

Illinois at Ohio State

Wisconsin at Penn State

Notre Dame at Purdue

Minnesota at Washington

Rice at Fresno State

San Diego State at Toledo

Troy at Utah State

Oregon State at UTEP

Boise State at Western Michigan

UConn at Miami (OH)

Louisiana at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

Southern Miss at Tulane

Air Force at Nevada

Hawai'i at Wyoming

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

UNLV at Akron

App State at NC State

South Alabama at Kentucky

New Mexico at New Mexico State

Ball State at Kent State

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.