The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#3Notre Dame3–097%#5Indiana3–091%#1Texas3–089%#2Georgia3–088%#7Ohio State2–179%#6Miami3–078%#4Ole Miss3–058%#15Utah3–056%#13Penn State3–053%#11Texas Tech3–050%#8Alabama3–047%James Madison3–034%

#7Ohio State2–1 · Big Ten▲ +4pp79%

#6Miami3–0 · ACC▼ −3pp78%

#4Ole Miss3–0 · SEC▲ +15pp58%

#15Utah3–0 · Big 12▲ +5pp56%

#13Penn State3–0 · Big Ten▲ +8pp53%

#11Texas Tech3–0 · Big 12▼ −4pp50%

#8Alabama3–0 · SEC▲ +5pp47%

James Madison3–0 · Sun Belt▼ −1pp34%

#10LSU2–1 · SEC▼ −6pp28%

#17Iowa3–0 · Big Ten▼ −1pp28%

#12USC4–0 · Big Ten▼ −7pp27%

Liberty2–1 · Conference USA▲ +6pp26%

#20Oregon2–1 · Big Ten▲ +3pp23%

#14Tennessee3–0 · SEC▲ +7pp21%

#9BYU3–0 · Big 12▲ +1pp19%

South Florida3–0 · American Athletic▲ +3pp18%

#16Louisville2–1 · ACC▲ +8pp17%

#23Texas A&M2–1 · SEC▼ −33pp16%

…

… · NBC

#20Oregonat#12USC

Final · #20 Oregon 41–27 #12 USC

…

… · CBS

#17Iowaat#18Michigan

Final · #17 Iowa 20–19 #18 Michigan

…

… · ABC

#23Texas A&Mat#10LSU

Final · #23 Texas A&M 6–35 #10 LSU

…

… · ABC

#1Texasat#14Tennessee

Final · #1 Texas 20–17 #14 Tennessee

…

… · ABC

#4Ole Missat#21Florida

Final · #4 Ole Miss 28–52 #21 Florida

…

… · FOX

#15UtahatIowa State

Final · #15 Utah 31–17 Iowa State

…

… · SEC Network

#19Missouriat#24Mississippi State

Final · #19 Missouri 24–31 #24 Mississippi State

…

… · ESPN

South Carolinaat#8Alabama

Final · South Carolina 18–49 #8 Alabama

…

… · ESPN

Oklahomaat#2Georgia

Final · Oklahoma 13–41 #2 Georgia

…

… · ERADM

Wisconsinat#13Penn State

Final · Wisconsin 24–20 #13 Penn State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.