The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

Week 4 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 4.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–043%

→

Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

Miami0–055%

→

Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–041%

→

Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–046%

→

Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Texas at Tennessee

Texas 51%

Who cares:Texas ±18pp Tennessee ±11pp Alabama ±2pp Ole Miss ±1pp

35 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

James Madison at Old Dominion

James Madison 59%

Who cares:James Madison ±23pp Old Dominion ±7pp South Florida ±2pp North Texas ±2pp

36 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oregon at USC

Oregon 56%

Who cares:Oregon ±18pp USC ±17pp

35 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Iowa at Michigan

Iowa 52%

Who cares:Iowa ±19pp Michigan ±9pp Penn State ±2pp Oregon ±1pp

32 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Utah at Iowa State

Utah 68%

Who cares:Utah ±22pp Iowa State ±4pp Texas Tech ±3pp BYU ±1pp

32 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oklahoma at Georgia

Georgia 79%

Who cares:Georgia ±17pp Oklahoma ±13pp Texas ±2pp Texas A&M ±2pp

34 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Texas A&M at LSU

Texas A&M 56%

Who cares:Texas A&M ±15pp LSU ±5pp Penn State ±2pp Vanderbilt ±1pp

24 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Vanderbilt 57%

Who cares:Vanderbilt ±16pp Auburn ±5pp Iowa ±1pp Miami ±1pp

24 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Ole Miss at Florida

Ole Miss 73%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±18pp Florida ±3pp Georgia ±1pp Washington ±1pp

28 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

South Carolina at Alabama

Alabama 73%

Who cares:Alabama ±15pp South Carolina ±7pp

22 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.