Michigan Wolverines

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

Big Ten title game

<1%

Win the Big Ten

11%

Make the playoff

First-round bye

avg seed 8.0

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Iowa.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Michigan's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Iowa at Michigan

Your game. Beat Iowa and your playoff odds are 16%; lose and they drop to 7%.

Iowa 52%

No other game this week meaningfully moves Michigan's odds. Enjoy the football.

56 more games that don't move your needle

Minnesota at Washington

Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Clemson at California

Navy at UAB

South Carolina at Alabama

Tulsa at Arkansas

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Ole Miss at Florida

Oklahoma at Georgia

Texas A&M at LSU

Missouri at Mississippi State

Texas at Tennessee

Arizona at Washington State

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Houston at Georgia Southern

Colorado at Baylor

Kansas State at Cincinnati

TCU at UCF

Utah at Iowa State

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Central Michigan at Miami

Delaware at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Stanford

Missouri State at SMU

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Wake Forest at Louisville

Northwestern at Indiana

UCLA at Maryland

Nebraska at Michigan State

Illinois at Ohio State

Wisconsin at Penn State

Notre Dame at Purdue

Oregon at USC

Rice at Fresno State

San Diego State at Toledo

Troy at Utah State

Oregon State at UTEP

Colorado State at UTSA

Boise State at Western Michigan

UConn at Miami (OH)

Army at Temple

Louisiana at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

Southern Miss at Tulane

South Florida at Bowling Green

Air Force at Nevada

Hawai'i at Wyoming

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

UNLV at Akron

App State at NC State

South Alabama at Kentucky

New Mexico at New Mexico State

Ball State at Kent State

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

James Madison at Old Dominion

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.