The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2026
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #12USC | 1–0 | 4–0 | 5.3–3.7 | 7% | 2% | 27% |
 UCLA | 1–0 | 3–0 | 3.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Purdue | 0–1 | 1–2 | 1.3–7.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Rutgers | 0–1 | 0–3 | 1.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 #5Indiana | 0–0 | 3–0 | 8.1–0.9 | 72% | 52% | 91% |
 #7Ohio State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 6.9–2.1 | 40% | 21% | 79% |
 #13Penn State | 0–0 | 3–0 | 7.5–1.5 | 41% | 14% | 53% |
 #17Iowa | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.2–2.8 | 15% | 4% | 28% |
 #20Oregon | 0–0 | 2–1 | 6.0–3.0 | 14% | 4% | 23% |
 Washington | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.5–4.5 | 3% | <1% | 8% |
 #18Michigan | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.6–4.4 | 3% | <1% | 11% |
 Nebraska | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | 6% |
 Wisconsin | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Illinois | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Michigan State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Maryland | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Minnesota | 0–0 | 2–1 | 2.6–6.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.