Ohio State Buckeyes

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

32%

Big Ten title game

15%

Win the Big Ten

80%

Make the playoff

36%

First-round bye

avg seed 5.2

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-4 job: beat Illinois.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4

If Ohio State wins out: 57% to win the Big Ten, 100% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Ohio State's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Illinois at Ohio State

Your game. Beat Illinois and your playoff odds are 81%; lose and they drop to 67%.

Ohio State 91%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Northwestern at Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Northwestern visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Indiana 96%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oregon at USC

Big Ten race: Oregon losing helps your spot in the standings; USC visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.

Oregon 56%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Wisconsin at Penn State

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Penn State 89%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Iowa at Michigan

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings; Michigan visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Iowa 52%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Minnesota at Washington

Minnesota winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Washington 84%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Nebraska at Michigan State

Nebraska visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Nebraska 52%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Southern Miss at Tulane

Southern Miss winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Tulane 84%

49 more games that don't move your needle

New Mexico at New Mexico State

Utah at Iowa State

Oregon State at UTEP

Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Clemson at California

Navy at UAB

South Carolina at Alabama

Tulsa at Arkansas

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Ole Miss at Florida

Oklahoma at Georgia

Texas A&M at LSU

Missouri at Mississippi State

Texas at Tennessee

Arizona at Washington State

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Houston at Georgia Southern

Colorado at Baylor

Kansas State at Cincinnati

TCU at UCF

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Central Michigan at Miami

Delaware at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Stanford

Missouri State at SMU

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Wake Forest at Louisville

UCLA at Maryland

Notre Dame at Purdue

Rice at Fresno State

San Diego State at Toledo

Troy at Utah State

Colorado State at UTSA

Boise State at Western Michigan

UConn at Miami (OH)

Army at Temple

Louisiana at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

South Florida at Bowling Green

Air Force at Nevada

Hawai'i at Wyoming

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

UNLV at Akron

App State at NC State

South Alabama at Kentucky

Ball State at Kent State

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

James Madison at Old Dominion

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.