Kent State stopped Ohio State twice on fourth down Saturday, and afterward Ryan Day talked about a six-lineman package with Jake Cook lined up at tight end that "gives us a different grouping with a little bit of strength there in the C gap", and said the staff would decide during the week whether to keep using it. That is the honest residue of a 59-3 win. The Buckeyes led 35-0 at halftime, held Kent State to 134 yards, and still spent the afternoon auditioning ways to gain two yards on the ground. Ohio State converted 1 of 8 third downs, and the criticism of the short-yardage blocking was the loudest thing to come out of a 56-point victory.
The volume is there. Ohio State rushed 38 times for 145 yards and four touchdowns, with Bo Jackson going 11 for 73 and Ja'Kobi Jackson 8 for 47 with two scores. That is up from the Texas game, where no run gained more than 11 yards and Sayin's four attempts for minus-seven dragged the line down. But 3.8 yards a carry against a MAC defense is not push, and Arthur Smith did not come here for volume. He arrived with 17 years of NFL experience and seven straight seasons in which a different running back cleared 1,000 scrimmage yards for his offense. The reason Ohio State hired him was to own the downs where the passing game does not help. Those are exactly the downs the Buckeyes are losing.
Right tackle Phillip Daniels was out with the lower-body injury he suffered in the fourth quarter at Texas, with Austin Siereveld expected to slide out to right tackle and Gabe VanSickle to right guard. Day did not expect Daniels to be gone long-term. Keep that in mind before writing off the short-yardage work entirely, but also remember that a line missing one starter should still be able to move Kent State.
Everything else on the tape was fine, which is what makes the third-down number stick out instead of blending in. Julian Sayin went 18 of 22 for 241 yards and two touchdowns and spread the ball to 10 different receivers, with Day noting that he got it out on time and read the field rather than locking onto Jeremiah Smith. Smith took five catches for 85 yards and in the process passed Michael Jenkins for Ohio State's career receiving yardage record. Matt Patricia's defense held Kent State to 134 yards with a Riley Pettijohn interception and a Braxton Rembert-forced fumble that Jamir Perez returned for a touchdown, a genuine rebound from the Texas closing drives, though Kent State was cycling through backup quarterbacks and Zion Grady was out, so file it as encouraging rather than settled. The freshmen produced too. Chris Henry Jr. caught a 75-yard touchdown from fellow freshman Luke Fahey, and Brock Boyd added four catches for 66 yards. Most of it came after a 35-0 halftime lead, which Day framed as a chance to "build some confidence going into conference play." Useful depth if the run game needs bodies. Not yet proof anyone can be trusted on a third-and-1 in November.
Illinois, noon, FOX
Ohio State hosts Illinois at noon Eastern on FOX to open Big Ten play, a 27.5-point favorite in a series it has won 10 straight times, dating to Illinois' 28-21 upset of the top-ranked Buckeyes in Ohio Stadium in 2007. The model gives Ohio State a 95% chance to win. So this is not a game to sweat. It is a game to watch for one thing.
The Buckeyes are averaging 4.6 yards per carry on the season and have four sacks in three games; Illinois has forced only two turnovers all year, though both became defensive touchdowns. Nobody on that Illinois roster is going to stop Sayin and Smith. What Illinois can do is hold up at the line of scrimmage on second-and-2 in a way Kent State's defense already managed to. If Ohio State snaps the ball in the six-lineman package and gets a yard when it needs a yard, the Kent State third-down line reads as sloppiness in a blowout. If it does not, it reads as a real problem, because Day already told everyone what the stakes are. He considered letting Texas score late before asking his defense for a stop instead. That fourth quarter turned on short, high-leverage downs. This week is the first Big Ten evidence on whether Ohio State has fixed them.
Beating Illinois keeps Ohio State's playoff odds near 80% and its Big Ten title-game odds around 42%; a loss drops those to roughly 62% and 17%. There is no version of this week where the result is in doubt and no version where the manner of the win is irrelevant.
Elsewhere
Four games move Ohio State's numbers, and three of them require upsets.
Wisconsin at Penn State: root for Wisconsin
A Wisconsin win is a long shot, so treat it as a bonus rather than something to count on.
Kickoff is 5 p.m. Eastern on Peacock. Wisconsin wins about 8% of the time, so do not plan your evening around it, but a Penn State loss is worth the most of anything on the board. Ohio State's chance of reaching the Big Ten title game sits near 48.6% in the branch where Wisconsin wins versus 39.7% where Penn State holds serve, a difference of 8.9 points. This is straight standings math. Penn State is a direct competitor for a championship-game berth, and every conference loss it takes is one Ohio State does not have to overcome.
Northwestern at Indiana: root for Northwestern
A Northwestern win is a long shot, so treat it as a bonus rather than something to count on.
Friday night, 8 p.m. Eastern on FOX. Northwestern's chance is about 4%, the longest shot of the week and the least likely thing on this list to actually happen, and the payoff is nearly identical. Forty-eight point nine percent title-game odds for Ohio State if Northwestern pulls it off, 40.1% if Indiana wins, a swing of 8.8 points. Indiana is the team that beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game last December and the team Ohio State visits Oct. 17. A loss now would not change that trip, but it would change what Ohio State needs from it.
Iowa at Michigan: root for Michigan
This result carries a 3.0 percentage-point impact on Ohio State's conference-title-game probability.
3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS, and it is a coin flip at 47% for Michigan. Yes, root for Michigan. Iowa is the more immediate standings problem, Ohio State plays at Iowa City next week, and an Iowa loss nudges the title-game number to 42.1% instead of 39.0%, worth 3 points. Small, and the discomfort is real, but it is the correct answer for one Saturday.
Missouri State at SMU: root for Missouri State
This result carries a 3.0 percentage-point impact on Ohio State's first-round-bye probability.
9 p.m. Eastern on ACC Network, with Missouri State around a 6% shot. This one has nothing to do with the Big Ten. SMU is competing with Ohio State for a top-four playoff seed, so an upset would put Ohio State's first-round bye odds at 36.5% instead of 33.6%, a 3-point gain. Background noise you can enjoy if you are still up.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulations work.