Ohio State Buckeyes
0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
Way too early
WEEK 1 · 2026
32%
Big Ten title game
15%
Win the Big Ten
80%
Make the playoff
36%
First-round bye
avg seed 5.2
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-1 job: beat Ball State.
If Ohio State wins out: 57% to win the Big Ten, 100% to make the playoff.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Ohio State's pathYour game
TBD
SAT SEP 5
Ball State at Ohio State
Your game. Beat Ball State and your playoff odds are 80%; lose and they drop to 65%.
Ohio State 100%
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
…
Notre Dame at Wisconsin
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Wisconsin winning protects it.
Notre Dame 95%
Root for Wisconsin+2.5 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ABC
Louisville at Ole Miss
Louisville winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Ole Miss 79%
Root for Louisville+1.2 pp playoff odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
Arkansas State at Memphis
SMU at Florida State · ESPN
Hawai'i at Stanford
Memphis at UNLV
San José State at USC
New Mexico State at Florida State
North Carolina at TCU · ESPN
NC State at Virginia · ESPN
Akron at Wake Forest
Massachusetts at Rutgers
Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Toledo at Michigan State
Fresno State at USC
San José State at Eastern Michigan
Miami at Stanford · ESPN
Florida Atlantic at Florida
UL Monroe at Mississippi State
UTEP at Oklahoma
Kent State at South Carolina
Texas State at Texas
Missouri State at Texas A&M
Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Boston College at Cincinnati
Oregon State at Houston
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh
Tulane at Duke
UCLA at California
UAB at Illinois
North Texas at Indiana
Northern Illinois at Iowa
Western Michigan at Michigan
Ohio at Nebraska
Boise State at Oregon
Marshall at Penn State
Washington State at Washington
Wyoming at Colorado State
Florida International at South Florida
Western Kentucky at Nevada
UNLV at Hawai'i
Central Michigan at New Mexico
Liberty at James Madison
Sam Houston at Troy
East Carolina at Alabama · ABC
Baylor at Auburn · ABC
Clemson at LSU · ABC
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.