Ohio State Buckeyes
0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
Way too early
WEEK 5 · 2026
32%
Big Ten title game
15%
Win the Big Ten
80%
Make the playoff
36%
First-round bye
avg seed 5.2
Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-5 job: beat Iowa.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Ohio State's pathYour game
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Ohio State at Iowa
Your game. Beat Iowa and your playoff odds are 87%; lose and they drop to 71%.
Ohio State 57%
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
TBD
FRI OCT 2
Penn State at Northwestern
Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings; Northwestern visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.
Penn State 71%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Indiana at Rutgers
Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Indiana in week 7.
Indiana 94%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Notre Dame at North Carolina
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and North Carolina winning protects it.
Notre Dame 97%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Ohio at Kent State
Kent State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Ohio 83%
50 more games that don't move your needle
Texas Tech at Colorado
Washington at USC
UL Monroe at South Alabama
Miami at Clemson
North Texas at Tulsa
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Liberty at Delaware
Vanderbilt at Georgia
Alabama at Mississippi State
Florida at Missouri
Kentucky at South Carolina
Auburn at Tennessee
Arkansas at Texas A&M
Middle Tennessee at Kansas
Baylor at Arizona State
BYU at TCU
UCF at Houston
Cincinnati at Arizona
West Virginia at Iowa State
Boston College at SMU
California at UNLV
Louisville at NC State
Stanford at Wake Forest
Syracuse at UConn
Virginia at Florida State
Purdue at Illinois
Michigan at Minnesota
Maryland at Nebraska
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Utah State at Boise State
Oregon State at Colorado State
Texas State at San Diego State
Fresno State at Washington State
Memphis at Charlotte
UTSA at Rice
Navy at Air Force
Temple at South Florida
San José State at Hawai'i
UTEP at New Mexico
Akron at Central Michigan
Toledo at Ball State
Western Michigan at Buffalo
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
Army at Louisiana Tech
Arkansas State at Louisiana
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion at Georgia State
Marshall at James Madison
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.