Jeremiah Smith caught four touchdown passes from Julian Sayin against Illinois, from 7, 72, 9 and 26 yards, and finished with 12 catches for 217 yards, tying Ohio State's single-game school record for touchdown catches. Ohio State won 42-19 in its Big Ten opener and moved to 3-1. And on the other side of the ball, Matt Patricia's defense allowed 462 total yards, its most since Oregon's 496 in 2024, ending a 27-game streak of holding opponents under 400. While still holding Illinois to two touchdowns in nine possessions.
That is the shape of this team through four games. The offense scores enough that the defense's leaks have not cost a game since Week 2. That's the caveat. Week 2 is when they did. Ryan Day confirmed afterward that he considered letting Texas score late but instead had his defense try for a stop, a decision he acknowledged "didn't work out," and nothing about beating a 2-2 Illinois team by 23 speaks to that.
Also worth flagging is freshman nickel Jay Timmons, who had become the most dependable piece of a newcomer class Ohio State is leaning on heavily, went down on a blitz late in the third quarter with an apparent hamstring injury and did not return. If he can't go, a secondary that just surrendered eight 20-yard plays gets thinner against a better opponent.
The game: Ohio State at Iowa
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS, at a Kinnick Stadium that has been sold out since July. Iowa is 14th in this week's AP poll, its highest ranking since 2021, with Ohio State up to No. 5. Markets have Ohio State by 14; the model gives the Buckeyes a 66% chance to win, which is about what a good road favorite should be.
Root hard, because the standings gap between the two outcomes is enormous. Win and Ohio State's Big Ten title-game odds sit near 65% with a 91% playoff number and a 48% shot at the first-round bye. Lose and those become 23%, 76% and 24%, not a slow slide, a different season, with Indiana on Oct. 17, USC on Oct. 31, Oregon on Nov. 7 and Michigan on Nov. 28 still ahead and no margin left for a second conference loss.
The last Ohio State trip to Iowa City is why this doesn't feel routine. In November 2017 the Buckeyes lost 55-24, with Nate Stanley throwing five touchdown passes. Day was co-offensive coordinator that day and has called it a scar that doesn't go away; previewing this trip he said he's tried to take it out of his memory. He also called Kinnick "one of the hardest places to play in in the conference, for sure".
What to watch for, specifically, is whether the Buckeyes lead in the fourth quarter and add to it. Day tied Illinois's big plays to his own pressure and man-coverage calls, which is a defense choosing risk. That's survivable when Smith is scoring four times. In a 20-17 game with a full Kinnick roaring, it's how leads disappear.
Elsewhere on Saturday
Four other results move Ohio State's numbers, none of them much. Take them as bonuses.
Penn State at Northwestern: root for Northwestern
Friday, 8 p.m. ET on FOX. Northwestern wins about 27% of the time, and a Penn State conference loss is worth roughly 4.6 percentage points on Ohio State's title-game odds, 54% if Northwestern pulls it off, 49% if not. Straight standings math in a league where the Buckeyes need the teams in front of them to drop games.
Indiana at Rutgers: root for Rutgers
Rutgers is a long shot here.
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on BTN. This is the biggest available swing, about 6.3 points of title-game odds, because Indiana is the team most likely to reach Indianapolis instead of Ohio State. It's also the least likely. Rutgers wins in roughly 3% of simulations. Fun to watch for twenty minutes, not something to build a weekend around.
Miami at Clemson: root for Clemson
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. A Clemson upset, at about 16%, knocks a playoff contender out of the top tier and nudges Ohio State's first-round-bye odds up about 2.6 points, to roughly 42% instead of 40%. Nothing to do with the Big Ten, just one fewer team competing for a top-four seed.
Toledo at Ball State: root for Ball State
Saturday, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Ball State wins about 6% of the time, so expect Toledo to handle this; if the upset does land, it's worth about 1.7 points of playoff odds by thinning the at-large field. File it under things you'll notice on the scoreboard ticker.
Full breakdown and updated numbers at the interactive guide; how the projections are built is explained in the methodology.