Ohio State Buckeyes

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 11 · 2026

32%

Big Ten title game

15%

Win the Big Ten

80%

Make the playoff

36%

First-round bye

avg seed 5.2

Way-too-early read: preseason ratings, while rosters are still settling. The week-11 job: beat Northwestern.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

If Ohio State wins out: 57% to win the Big Ten, 100% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Ohio State's path

Your game

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Northwestern at Ohio State

Your game. Beat Northwestern and your playoff odds are 82%; lose and they drop to 55%.

Ohio State 92%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Michigan at Oregon

Big Ten race: Oregon losing helps your spot in the standings; Michigan visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Oregon 81%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Minnesota at Penn State

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Penn State 88%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

USC at Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings.

Indiana 90%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Texas at LSU

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas 60%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Oklahoma State winning protects it.

Texas Tech 95%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Ole Miss at Oklahoma

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Oklahoma winning protects it.

Ole Miss 56%

TBD

SAT NOV 14

Nebraska at Rutgers

Nebraska visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Rutgers 53%

57 more games that don't move your needle

Missouri at Georgia

Utah at Arizona

Western Michigan at Akron

Kent State at Bowling Green

Ohio at Miami (OH)

Buffalo at Ball State

Massachusetts at Toledo

Memphis at South Florida

Louisiana at UL Monroe

Florida State at Pittsburgh

Arizona State at UCF

Baylor at BYU

Cincinnati at Iowa State

Houston at Colorado

Kansas at West Virginia

Kansas State at TCU

South Carolina at Arkansas

Florida at Kentucky

Auburn at Mississippi State

Tennessee at Texas A&M

Alabama at Vanderbilt

California at Virginia

Duke at Miami

Georgia Tech at Clemson

Louisville at North Carolina

Stanford at Virginia Tech

Syracuse at NC State

Wake Forest at SMU

Purdue at Iowa

Wisconsin at Maryland

Washington at Michigan State

Illinois at UCLA

Oregon State at Boise State

Utah State at San Diego State

Fresno State at Texas State

Colorado State at Washington State

James Madison at UConn

East Carolina at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at Tulsa

North Texas at UTSA

Tulane at Rice

UAB at Temple

Nevada at Northern Illinois

San José State at Air Force

UNLV at New Mexico

Wyoming at UTEP

App State at Marshall

Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina

Georgia Southern at Georgia State

Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky

Kennesaw State at Sam Houston

New Mexico State at Missouri State

Florida International at Delaware

Middle Tennessee at Liberty

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech

Troy at South Alabama

Boston College at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, with preseason ratings projected from last season: way too early, enjoy responsibly. How the model works.