The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#3Notre Dame5–097%#4Miami5–095%#2Georgia5–095%#1Texas4–092%#5Ohio State4–191%#7Indiana5–089%#6Alabama5–085%#12Utah4–060%#11Texas Tech5–049%#13Oregon3–136%#8BYU4–033%James Madison5–032%

#6Alabama5–0 · SEC▲ +20pp85%

#12Utah4–0 · Big 12▼ −4pp60%

#11Texas Tech5–0 · Big 12▼ −4pp49%

#13Oregon3–1 · Big Ten▲ +8pp36%

#8BYU4–0 · Big 12▲ +11pp33%

James Madison5–0 · Sun Belt32%

#9Ole Miss3–1 · SEC▼ −4pp30%

#10LSU4–1 · SEC▼ −22pp21%

#15Tennessee4–1 · SEC▲ +2pp20%

#23Boise State4–1 · Pac-12▼ −1pp19%

#20Iowa4–1 · Big Ten▼ −11pp18%

Liberty4–1 · Conference USA▼ −3pp17%

#14Missouri4–1 · SEC▲ +11pp17%

New Mexico4–1 · Mountain West▲ +12pp15%

The slate gets ranked when this becomes the current week — too much football happens between now and then.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.