The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
Looking ahead
WEEK 11 · 2026
Week 11 is still ahead — here's the race as it stands entering week 6.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 2–0 | 5–0 | 7.6–0.4 | 94% | 85% | 32% |
 Louisiana | 1–0 | 4–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 44% | 6% | <1% |
 South Alabama | 1–0 | 3–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 14% | 1% | <1% |
 Georgia State | 1–0 | 4–1 | 4.5–3.5 | 2% | 1% | <1% |
 Georgia Southern | 1–0 | 2–3 | 4.2–3.8 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 0–1 | 2–3 | 3.8–4.2 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 Marshall | 0–1 | 3–2 | 4.4–3.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Coastal Carolina | 0–1 | 1–4 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 0–1 | 0–5 | 1.1–6.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Old Dominion | 0–2 | 1–4 | 2.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Louisiana Tech | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.9–3.1 | 22% | 2% | <1% |
 Troy | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 14% | 2% | <1% |
 App State | 0–0 | 3–1 | 3.8–4.2 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Southern Miss | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.8–5.2 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.