The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 1–0 | 4–0 | 7.5–0.5 | 92% | 82% | 31% |
 Old Dominion | 0–1 | 1–3 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Louisiana | 0–0 | 3–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 40% | 7% | <1% |
 Louisiana Tech | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.8–3.2 | 21% | 3% | <1% |
 Troy | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 14% | 2% | <1% |
 Marshall | 0–0 | 3–1 | 4.8–3.2 | 3% | 2% | <1% |
 South Alabama | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.2–3.8 | 12% | 1% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.1–3.9 | 10% | <1% | <1% |
 Georgia Southern | 0–0 | 1–3 | 3.6–4.4 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 App State | 0–0 | 3–1 | 3.7–4.3 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–0 | 3–1 | 3.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Southern Miss | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.7–5.3 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Coastal Carolina | 0–0 | 1–3 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 0–0 | 0–4 | 1.2–6.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.