The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2026
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Massachusetts | 1–0 | 4–0 | 4.6–3.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% |
 Eastern Michigan | 1–0 | 2–3 | 3.8–4.2 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 Kent State | 1–0 | 2–2 | 3.1–4.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Sacramento State | 0–2 | 1–4 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Ball State | 0–1 | 1–3 | 1.8–6.2 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Toledo | 0–0 | 3–1 | 7.0–1.0 | 85% | 66% | 4% |
 Western Michigan | 0–0 | 2–2 | 6.1–1.9 | 53% | 21% | <1% |
 Ohio | 0–0 | 2–2 | 5.3–2.7 | 19% | 5% | <1% |
 Miami (OH) | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.6–3.4 | 12% | 3% | 0% |
 Buffalo | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 11% | 2% | 0% |
 Central Michigan | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.2–3.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% |
 Bowling Green | 0–0 | 0–4 | 3.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Akron | 0–0 | 1–3 | 1.1–6.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.