The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2026
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eastern Michigan | 1–0 | 1–2 | 4.7–3.3 | 12% | 3% | <1% |
 Sacramento State | 0–1 | 1–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 7% | 2% | 0% |
 Toledo | 0–0 | 1–1 | 6.5–1.5 | 71% | 47% | 3% |
 Western Michigan | 0–0 | 1–1 | 6.3–1.7 | 60% | 34% | 1% |
 Buffalo | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.0–3.0 | 17% | 5% | 0% |
 Ohio | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.0–3.0 | 16% | 5% | <1% |
 Miami (OH) | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.4–3.6 | 8% | 2% | 0% |
 Central Michigan | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.0–4.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% |
 Bowling Green | 0–0 | 0–2 | 3.7–4.3 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 Ball State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–0 | 2–0 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Kent State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Akron | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.1–6.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.